Even with forecasts for busier-than-expected July 4 holiday travel, retail gasoline prices are in a bit of a holding pattern, data for Friday show.
Travel club AAA put the national average retail price at $3.54 for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, down from the $3.58 average at this point last month.
"Gas prices are $1.30 per gallon less this year than last, but they are still high compared to historical averages," said Andrew Gross, a spokesperson for AAA.
Retail gasoline prices have largely followed trends in the broader commodities market. The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, has been range-bound since late April, trading in the mid- to upper-$70 per barrel range. Brent was trading at around $75 barrel as of 10 a.m. EDT.
When adjusted for year-on-year inflation, retail gasoline prices are actually a bit closer to $4 per gallon, though an increase in wages and disposable income means many consumers are unfazed.
AAA said it expects slightly more than 50 million people in the United States to travel more than 50 miles during the upcoming holiday, which falls on a Tuesday this year. That would set a record should the forecast prove accurate.
Much of that, however, could be in the form of air travel, where AAA expects to see an 11.2% increase from year-ago levels. Should AAA's forecast prove accurate, air travel would be 6.6% higher than 2019 levels, prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The share of air travelers in the overall holiday forecast this year is an impressive 8.2% — the highest percentage in nearly 20 years," it said.
Airports could be congested and prone to cancellations given a shortage of workers in air-traffic control.
For the upcoming holiday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting temperatures will be slightly higher than normal from the northern Rockies to the Northeast. It may be hot in the Great Lakes region and in the south, where high levels of humidity could make for a stifling holiday.
