Xi Jinping has secured near total control over China's Communist Party but experts warn his unchecked power is a huge risk, with a debt-ridden economy and a US rivalry also presenting major challenges.

His reappointment as party leader is a watershed moment in China's modern history, tilting decisively back towards one-man rule after decades of power-sharing among the elite.

Xi was again confirmed as party general secretary and military chief on Sunday at the conclusion of a twice-a-decade party congress in Beijing, sealing a third term at the helm of the world's second-largest economy.

Party faithful also approved a sweeping reshuffle that stocked the top ruling body — the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee — with Xi's allies.

The outcome capped 10 years in which Xi has accrued more power than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, and broke with the example set by his two predecessors who smoothly handed their authority to those next in line.

It has also sparked warnings that Xi's increasingly unchecked power may trigger a succession crisis when his rule finally comes to an end.

"(Xi's) reappointment today is the result of his concentration of extreme individual power," said a senior Chinese political scholar who requested anonymity to avoid potential repercussions from the authorities.

The move was "catastrophically negative for the Chinese state", harming the party's resilience and heralding "decline and stagnation", the scholar said, adding that it was "inevitable" that Xi would now seek to rule for life.

– Economic woes –

It is the economy that is likely to command Xi's immediate focus as he embarks on his history-making third term.

In recent years, he has thrown his weight behind the development of a more consumption-driven economy — a policy known as "dual circulation" — and has sought to address China's yawning wealth gap under the banner of "common prosperity".

However, his signature zero-Covid strategy, with its snap lockdowns, mass testing and curbs on movement, has pummelled consumer sentiment and chipped away at growth.

"Consumption is unlikely to recover to pre-Covid level with the current scale of Covid control," said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China.

She said the policy has "added to the woes" in the property sector, where a debt crisis has sparked developer defaults and sown fears of a looming financial crunch for local governments.

"The government will have to choose a new model to develop the housing sector while keeping the deleveraging requirement in place," Wang said.

China this week delayed the release of its third-quarter economic growth figures, amid expectations that the country was on course for its weakest performance since the early days of the pandemic in 2020.

The country eked out just 0.4 percent growth in the second quarter, and analysts widely expect it to miss its annual growth target of 5.5 percent by a wide margin.

– Eye on Taiwan –

More problems on Xi's horizons include China's relations with the West, which have cratered as Beijing has forcefully quelled huge pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and taken an aggressive stance on Taiwan.

Xi himself has repeatedly said global geopolitics is "undergoing changes unseen in a century", and peppered his opening address to the Congress with references to "security".

He also reiterated that China would never renounce the option of using force to impose its rule on Taiwan, a thriving island democracy that Beijing views as part of its own territory and the US has vowed to help defend itself.

Xi's Communist Party even enshrined its opposition to Taiwanese independence in its constitution, according to a resolution published on Saturday.

Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said Xi "again and again integrates unification across the (Taiwan) Strait into his cause for Chinese national greatness".

The focus on national security in the military, economic and ideological realms "reflects the fact, as most observers in the world judge, that there is no indication of any major and lasting mitigation of relations with US and its maritime allies… in the predictable future," he told AFP.

While Xi's reappointment is unlikely to raise the risk of war over Taiwan, "it could be one step in a chain of events that ultimately raises the risk of armed conflict", said Shanghai-based political risk analyst Dan Macklin.

Beijing might step up plans for reunification if slower economic growth through the mid-2020s leads the party to expand upon other sources of legitimacy, he told AFP.

But Xi's advancing age combined with a top leadership stacked with personal allies could "raise the risk of miscalculation" — and "give Xi an extreme level of control and greater capacity to take bold moves on Taiwan", Macklin said.

Jeffrey Wasserstrom, a leading scholar of modern Chinese history at the University of California, Irvine, said Xi's unassailable position at the top of the party raised concerns about the "willingness of people to talk about things that diverge from the official line".

Who's on the Chinese Communist Party's new Politburo Standing Committee?
Beijing (AFP) Oct 23, 2022 –

The Chinese Communist Party on Sunday unveiled its new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee headed by leader Xi Jinping, representing the apex of political power in China.

Here are the men who will rule Beijing for the next five years, in order of seniority.

Xi Jinping

The 69-year-old was re-elected as general secretary of the Communist Party, paving the way for him to secure a third term as Chinese president at the government's annual legislative sessions next March.

Xi abolished the presidential two-term limit in 2018, paving the way for him to govern indefinitely.

He has consolidated power since becoming general secretary in 2012, partly through a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign that brought down his political rivals.

This means that "elite promotions are less of a balancing act between rival factions and more of a loyalty contest within Xi's dominant faction", said Neil Thomas, senior China analyst at Eurasia Group.

Li Qiang

The former Shanghai party chief and Xi confidant was promoted to number two in the party hierarchy, making him likely to be named premier at next March's legislative sessions.

It would be an unusual appointment since Li, unlike most past premiers, does not have experience as a vice premier managing central government portfolios.

The 63-year-old rising star's prospects were seemingly in doubt after he bungled a harsh two-month lockdown of Shanghai earlier this year that saw residents left with a lack of access to food and medical care.

This "showcases to everyone that loyalty rather than popularity is the key for your promotion", tweeted Yang Zhang, an assistant professor at American University in Washington.

"The disaster of Shanghai Lockdown did not stop Li's elevation precisely because he followed Xi's order despite all criticism."

Li is viewed as one of Xi's favourites, having served as the leader's chief of staff while he was party boss of the affluent Zhejiang province between 2004 and 2007.

Zhao Leji

The 65-year-old former head of the party's top anti-corruption watchdog has remained on the Standing Committee, being promoted to number three in the party hierarchy.

The experienced administrator has been party secretary of two provinces and a Politburo member since 2012.

Wang Huning

Xi's ideology tsar and existing Standing Committee member has been promoted to number four in the party lineup.

Dubbed the "brains behind the throne", the 67-year-old former university professor has devised ideologies for three current and former Chinese presidents, and is the architect of Xi's "China Dream" slogan, as well as the country's more assertive foreign policy.

In one of his most famous works, "America Against America", he argued for the US' inevitable downfall due to wayward cultural values like decadence and individualism.

Cai Qi

Current Beijing party chief Cai Qi has been promoted to the Standing Committee and becomes the head of the General Secretariat, managing the day-to-day affairs of the party, according to a member list released by Xinhua.

The 66-year-old is seen as a close political ally of Xi due to his time working under him in the provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian.

He was sent to Beijing as deputy head of the General Office of the National Security Commission in 2014, before becoming Beijing party boss in 2017. He oversaw the successful Beijing Winter Olympics in February.

Ding Xuexiang

The low-key Politburo member and top aide of Xi has been promoted to the Standing Committee — an appointment widely expected by analysts for a member of the leader's inner circle.

The 60-year-old regularly accompanies Xi on official engagements, becoming a familiar face hovering in the background of state media reports, never far from his boss.

The former head of the Communist Party's General Office has never served as a provincial-level party boss or governor, making his appointment effectively a reward for his loyalty to Xi.

The pair became close while Ding served in the Shanghai party committee — Xi was Shanghai's top party boss in 2007-8 — and he moved to Beijing to work as Xi's personal secretary in 2013.

"If Xi's two secretaries lead the (government) State Council… it will no longer be parallel with the Party, but simply one (of) many institutions under the leadership of the Party, and of Xi," tweeted Zhang.

Li Xi

The current Politburo member and party chief of economic powerhouse Guangdong province has been promoted to the Standing Committee, in an appointment widely anticipated by observers.

Li, 66, was confirmed as head of the powerful Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the party's powerful anti-graft watchdog, in a list released by Xinhua.

Li is regarded as a confidant of Xi, having known him since the 1980s after working as secretary for a close ally of Xi's father, revolutionary leader Xi Zhongxun. He also built up a power base in Shaanxi, Xi's ancestral province.