A total of 73 commercial communications satellites valued at $9.5 billion will be launched for Asian and Pacific Rim customers during 1999-2008, predict Teal Group analysts in their annual assessment of individual markets for commercial communications satellites.
Teal Group analysts released their new forecast at the 49th IAF 1998 International Astronautical Congress taking place this week in Melbourne, Australia.
"While most of the value of these 73 satellite launches will be for replenishment of established constellations, such as China's Asiasat, India's Insat, and Indonesia's Palapa, the $9.5 billion value also includes new geostationary mobile communications satellite systems, such as India's Agrani, Singapore/China's APMT, and Philippines/Indonesia/China's Garuda," said Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group's "World Space Systems Briefing," the 1,400-page, monthly-updated competitive intelligence service, in which the space forecast will be published.
"Following two double-digit launch years at the beginning of the decade, the number of launches for Asian and Pacific Rim customers remains fairly steady throughout the succeeding eight years," said Mr. Caceres.
The number of annual launches and their anticipated values follow:
1999 (13 launches valued at $1.7 billion),
2000 (11 launches/$1.5 billion),
2001 (4 1aunches/$0.6 billion),
2002 (5 launches/$0.5 billion),
2003 (9 launches/ $1.0 billion),
2004 (6 launches/$0.7 billion),
2005 (6 launches/$0.9 billion),
2006 (5 launches/$0.7 billion),
2007 (8 launches/$1.1 billion),
2008 (6 launches valued at $0.8 billion).
"We included 26 separate commercial communications satellite systems for 13 Asian and Pacific Rim countries in our forecast,"
said Mr. Caceres.
The individual systems and their customer countries comprised: Agila/Philippines, Agrani/India, APMT/Singapore-China,
Apstar/China, Asiasat/China, BSAT/Japan, Cakrawarta/Indonesia, Chinasat/China, Dongfanghong/China,
Garuda/Philippines-Indonesia-China, Gigabit Satcom/Japan, Insat/India, JCSat/Japan, L-Star/Thailand-Laos, M2A/Indonesia,
MTSat/Japan, Mungunghwa/South Korea, N-Star/Japan, Optus/Australia, Pacstar/Papua New Guinea, Paksat/Pakistan,
Palapa/Indonesia, Sinosat/China, Superbird/Japan, Telkom/Indonesia, and Vietnamsat/Vietnam.
Earlier this month, in their annual assessment of the world market for commercial communications satellites, Teal analysts
predicted that a total of 1,017 commercial communications satellites valued at $49.8 billion (in 1998 US dollars) will be
launched during 1999-2008. Teal analysts released their world market forecast during Farnborough 98 in Farnborough,
England.
Teal Group is an aerospace and defense market analysis firm based in Fairfax, Virginia, USA that provides competitive
intelligence to industry and government.
