Britain announced a spike in deaths related to swine flu on Thursday, but as health experts began grappling with worst-case scenarios, difficult questions over the availability of vaccines emerged.
France and Portugal announced major orders for vaccines against the A(H1N1) virus, soon after Latin American countries expressed concern that their poorer region could miss out, despite being worst-hit by the pandemic.
In London the Health Protection Agency said 29 people with the A(H1N1) virus in Britain had so far died, a sharp increase in the death toll, which earlier this week stood at 17.
It also estimated there were 55,000 new cases last week in Britain, the country worst hit by the pandemic in Europe.
The chief medical officer for England, Liam Donaldson, published new projections to help the health service manage the virus, but which he stressed presented the worst-case scenario.
This scenario suggested that the virus could kill up to 65,000 people, while up to nine percent of the workforce could have flu by the end of August, rising to 12 percent over the winter.
Britain has ordered 132 million doses of a flu vaccine: enough for 60 million people.
France announced it had ordered 94 million swine flu vaccine doses, stepping up its efforts to contain what the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned is now an unstoppable pandemic.
Health Minister Roselyne Bachelot said the vaccines — a one-billion-euro order — would be delivered between October and January.
France's minister for higher education and research Valerie Pecresse said Thursday the government had set aside two million euros towards resarch on swine flu.
Portugal also announced an order for six million doses of vaccine, costing 45 million euros (64 million dollars) to be deliver by January at the latest.
"We will be in a position to vaccinate for free all the groups considered to be at risk," said Health Minister Ana Jorge.
Neither country has reported a death from swine flu.
In Argentina, which has recorded 137 confirmed deaths — second only to the US toll — Health Minister Juan Manzur expressed fears that South American countries would not be able to get their share of the vaccines.
"We have information that much of the production is already reserved," he said, in remarks late Wednesday after hosting six-nation talks on the issue.
Of the other countries present at the talks, Chile has 33 deaths, Uruguay 15, Paraguay six, Brazil four, and Bolivia two.
Ministers at the meeting also expressed alarm that the virus had picked up in the southern hemisphere's winter.
The WHO has reported about 430 deaths worldwide, but their last toll dates back to July 6.
Spain health's ministry on Thursday reported a third death from swine flu: a 33-year-old woman on the island of Palma de Mallorca, but stressed that most people were responding well to conventional treatment.
On Thursday, Australia warned it could face 6,000 swine flu deaths this year. But Health Minister Nicola Roxon stressed: "That's really the worst-case scenario that is being projected at the moment."
It was on the assumption that there would be a lack of vaccines and anti-viral drugs, she said.
Australia is the Asia-Pacific nation worst-hit by the pandemic, with 11,194 infections — or nearly 12 percent of the global total of 94,500 confirmed by the World Health Organization.
It is planning a mass vaccination scheme in October.
WHO chief Margaret Chan warned on Wednesday that a vaccine to combat the surging pandemic would not be readily available for months.
earlier related report
We need swine flu vaccines too: S. American countries
South American countries are worried that wealthier nations are snapping up all the orders for new swine flu vaccines, despite their poorer region being among the worst-hit by the virus.
Concerns were voiced at talks in Buenos Aires this week that vaccines expected to be available in September or October were pre-destined for the United States, Europe, Australia and other richer nations.
"We expressed our preoccupation about being able to count on the vaccine when it starts going on sale at the end of the year," Argentine Health Minister Juan Manzur said after Wednesday's meeting of health ministers from six South American states.
"We have information that much of the production is already reserved," he said.
Manzur added that information given by his Bolivian, Brazilian, Chilean, Paraguayan and Uruguayan counterparts suggested a decline in the number of people seeking medical help for symptoms of the A(H1N1) virus.
But he warned: "We have to be cautious because we can't rule out a second wave in our countries."
South America is experiencing high infection rates and many fatalities from the flu.
That was in part because it had entered the southern hemisphere's winter, and because of links to the United States and Mexico, both at the epicenter of the pandemic.
Argentina, hosting the ministers' gathering, is now the second worst-hit country in the world in terms of deaths, after the United States.
It counts 137 confirmed deaths and more than 3,000 infections, giving it the worst fatality toll in the world after the United States, which has 211 deaths and more than 30,000 infections.
Chile has 33 deaths, Uruguay has 15, Paraguay has six, Brazil has four, and Bolivia has two.
In terms of confirmed infections, Chile has the most, with 10,491 counted, though tallying methodology appeared to vary across the region.
A World Health Organization (WHO) count gives a total of 429 deaths around the world and 94,500 infected cases.
WHO chief Margaret Chan said on Wednesday that no vaccine against A(H1N1) would be ready before mid-September — after the end of the southern winter — because clinical tests were needed on almost completed test vaccines.
When they do become available, wealthy nations have already made sure they have the first orders.
US Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said last Sunday that "Congress has agreed with the president that this is the number one priority, keeping Americans safe and secure." She said up to two billion dollars had been set aside to ensure supplies.
The governments of Britain and France have reassured their populations that they will be among the first to get the vaccines, too.
French Health Minister Roselyne Bachelot on Thursday announced that one billion euros (1.4 billion dollars) was being spent to pre-order 94 million swine flu vaccine doses for delivery between October and January.
France — population 64 million — has more than 600 swine flu infections but no fatalities thus far.
Australia, which Thursday said it faced a possible worst-case scenario of 6,000 swine flu deaths nationally, has ordered 21 million doses of the forthcoming vaccine, enough to immunize its entire population.
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