But they will remain the main beneficiaries of climate change, with the agriculture, shipping, and oil, gas and mining sectors among those that are expected to prosper as snow and ice melts in the north.

"The rich countries of the north are going to be winners of climate change, while the poor countries of the south are going to be losers," Jann-Gunnar Winther, director of the Norwegian Polar Institute, told AFP during a global warming conference held in the Arctic town of Tromsoe this week.

Agriculture in the polar region is expected to expand as the farming season increases with the temperature.

"It will be easier than before to grow food in areas such as northern Siberia and northern Canada," Paal Prestrud, author of a UN report on the melting of snow and ice published this week, told AFP.

"With more days with an average of five degrees C (41 degrees F), agriculture will improve considerably," he added.

Fishing in the northern seas could expand too.

"The herring, the tuna and the brisling are slowly going north (to the most northern parts of the Atlantic Ocean)," explained Winther, pointing out however that the Arctic cod, the key natural resource in the Barents Sea, could also move even northwards and eastwards, farther afield from fishermen.

"The forestry industry could grow too," said Winther, as warmer temperatures means trees can grow at higher latitudes.

Summer tourism could increase in northern European countries, as Italy, Spain and Greece become too hot in July and August. In winter, "northern parts of Finland, Sweden and Norway could become the new skiing playgrounds" as the Alps and Pyrenees become greener, Winther said.

And even nations not usually known for their wine production could produce a better tipple.

"The UK could produce a better quality of white wine because the grapes will improve," Prestrud said.

"But Bordeaux wines may reduce in quality as it gets warmer," he added.

Commercial shipping would also expand as the ice sheet shrinks, with navigation days in the Arctic Ocean increasing from 30 days today to between 120 and 140 days by the end of the century.

"A ship from Rotterdam to Japan would take 10 days less through the Arctic Ocean than through the Suez Canal, even less if the North Pole becomes ice-free," Prestrud said.

But perhaps the most cash-rich advantage would be the increased accessibility to oil and gas resources in the Arctic, a process partly enabled by global warming.

The polar region holds a quarter of the world's untapped petroleum reserves, according to the US Geological Survey.

Russian gas company Gazprom is already looking to develop the oil and gas fields of northern Siberia and the Barents Sea, including Shtokman, the world's largest offshore gas field.

"There is no doubt in my mind that the increased interest in the (polar region) is linked to this increased openness," Prestrud said.

Even some of the countries expected to suffer badly from climate change, such as Greenland, are getting ready for the economic rush.

"We are looking forward to getting out more oil, gas and minerals," Eskild Lund Soerensen, climate coordinator at the environment ministry of Greenland Home Rule, the governing body of the Danish territory, told AFP.

"This is an opportunity to be completely self-sustaining, (and) no longer live off the subsidies from Denmark and create jobs for local people," he added.

The Danish territory is believed to hold significant amounts of gold, rubies and diamonds. It started extracting gold about five years ago.

"Our office in charge of awarding prospecting concessions is swamped with work," Lund Soerensen said, pointing out, however, some of the numerous disadvantages that climate change has on Greenland.

For instance, Inuit hunters are having problems hunting polar bears, walruses and seals, because the sea ice is retreating.

"They have to find alternate routes or not go because the ice is too thin," he said.

Climate change scientists also warn that the Greenland ice sheet could melt completely if the planet's temperature rises too much, dramatically increasing sea levels around the world.

Email This Article

Related Links
G8 2007
Norwegian Polar Institute
Powering The World in the 21st Century at Energy-Daily.com