After a lull this year, the Atlantic hurricane season in 2007 will see "a return to high activity," scientists forecast on Friday. "Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be 60 percent above the 1950-2006 norm in 2007," said Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a London-based consortium.
"There is a high (around 80 percent) likelihood that activity will be in the top one-third of years historically," it added in its press release.
It gave the rough forecast of more than 15 tropical storms, of which nearly nine would be hurricanes, and nearly four intense hurricanes.
2006 was a quiet year for hurricanes.
Out of nine tropical storms during the June-November season, only five hurricanes formed and none made landfall on US coasts.
That compared to the deadly 2005 season, which produced a record 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes, seven of them intense. They included Hurricane Katrina, which swept westward across Florida before barrelling into New Orleans on August 29, 2005.
TSR (tropicalstormrisk.com) groups scientists from University College London's Benfield Hazard Research Centre, which is sponsored by the reinsurance industry.
Its forecast is based on the sea surface temperature and trade wind speed in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, which are the two main drivers for whipping up hurricanes.
Source: Agence France-Presse
