Hong Kong's elites go to the polls Sunday to choose a new leader for the Asian financial centre, after an unusually fiery election process that has tested China's carefully crafted consensus model.
The so-called "small-circle election" will see 1,200 privileged members of a pro-Beijing electoral committee decide who replaces outgoing Chief Executive Donald Tsang, whose term ends in June.
The choice is between two establishment figures in the form of Henry Tang, the heir to a textile fortune who was the government's former chief secretary, and Leung Chun-ying, a policeman's son turned self-made property consultant.
A third candidate, democracy campaigner Albert Ho, is also in the mix but admits to having no chance of winning more than half of the votes required for victory.
Analysts say the election has generated unprecedented rancour and media scrutiny, fuelled by the behind-the-scenes machinations of mainland China's own once-in-a-decade leadership struggle.
Beijing has not openly backed any candidate but some analysts link Leung — a 57-year-old former government adviser — to a mainland faction led by outgoing President Hu Jintao.
Chinese University of Hong Kong history professor Willy Lam said the two main candidates each "have their own group of supporters in Beijing".
Tang, 59, was believed to have Beijing's backing until a series of personal scandals and gaffes sent his approval ratings plunging below 20 percent.
His campaign started with an emotional public admission of marital infidelity and came off the rails with the discovery of an illegally built entertainment den at his home, which he blamed on his wife.
"I am not a perfect man. In my private life, I have made mistakes and I have not dealt with them in a decisive manner," the strongly pro-business candidate said in a recent television appearance.
"And because of that, the focus of this election has been shifted and I have to be responsible to a certain extent. For this I have to sincerely send my apology to all the people in Hong Kong."
Leung has been a steady performer by comparison, consistently leading Tang in popular opinion polls thanks largely to his promises to close the wealth gap and tackle soaring housing costs in the southern city.
But the former government adviser has faced his own share of criticism, including alleged involvement with triad crime figures and claims he is a secret communist. He rejects both allegations.
"In my generation, efforts led to success but it is no longer the case for our young generation and there are voices for change," he said last week, appealing to those who have missed out on Hong Kong's property-fuelled riches.
With pro-democracy demonstrations planned for Sunday, analysts say the mainland wants to avoid foisting an unpopular candidate on the region of seven million people.
Hong Kong reverted to Chinese control from British rule in 1997, with a semi-autonomous status that guarantees broad social freedoms under limited democracy.
Beijing has said that, at the earliest, the city's chief executive could be directly elected in 2017 and the legislature by 2020.
For now, Tang has the unwavering support of Asia's richest man Li Ka-shing, a key committee member, but other tycoons with the right to vote are reported to be shifting to Leung's camp under last-minute pressure from Beijing.
"Hong Kong people are tired of government by tycoons, of tycoons, for tycoons," Baptist University political scientist Michael DeGolyer, a Ho supporter, said.
Beijing is also believed to be keen to avoid an embarrassing second round if no candidate wins more than half of the vote — a real possibility given the divisions in the establishment camp.
Pro-Beijing Hong Kong newspapers on Thursday appealed for committee members to form a consensus, and criticised those who have threatened to return blank ballots at the two-hour meeting starting at 0100 GMT on Sunday.
The Wen Wei Po daily said it was in Hong Kong's "overall interest" for delegates to set aside their differences and choose a chief executive who had "majority support".
