Teal Group has reported at the Satellite 2006 conference and exposition the completion of a new 10-year market forecast for geostationary orbit commercial satellites. The study projects a total of 176 GEO commercial satellites, worth $28.3 billion, will be built and launched during 2006-2015.
"We've been launching an average of just over 15 large commercial satellites annually during the past three years, and we expect this level to remain about the same in 2006" said Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Space Systems Briefing, the 1,400-page monthly-updated competitive intelligence service, in which this and nine other consolidated forecasts plus over 180 separate space program reports are published.
Caceres notes, "However, there will be some noticeable growth in the market beginning in 2007, with closer to 20 satellites going up each year during 2007-2009. That will put the market back to where it was in the late 1990s."
The study cites last year's 19 orders — an increase of 37% over 2004 — for GEO commercial satellites as a major reason for the near-term increase in launch projections. The entry into the market of at least a dozen new satellite operators will also result in orders during the next two years, which means that a relatively high number of satellites should continue to be launched in 2008-2009.
New operators such as TerreStar Networks and WildBlue Communications will join traditional operators such as Intelsat and SES Global. Also, countries such as China and India will build and launch many more satellites that they did during the past 10 years.
Of the total GEO commercial satellites forecasted, China and India alone will account for approximately 20%, compared with a 22% combined share for 19 US companies, including major players such as DirecTV, Echostar, Loral Skynet, Panamsat and SES Americom.
GEO Commercial Satellites:
Forecast, 2006-2015 (units)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
15 19 18 23 17 15
2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
13 16 21 19 176
