What's behind these concerns?
- American debt -
Republicans in particular are worried about this issue, concerned that China holds too much American debt.
The fear is that Beijing could use this to pressure Washington by threatening to resell its bonds, bringing down the value of holdings.
While the American debt exceeds $34 trillion, only around $8 trillion is held abroad.
China is a key holder of US debt, accounting for $816 billion and just over $1 trillion when Hong Kong is included, according to Treasury Department figures.
But it is the second biggest foreign holder behind Japan -- which holds $1.1 trillion -- and ahead of Britain.
- Tech race -
US President Joe Biden has focused on tech, noting its importance to ensuring national security.
Be it in semiconductors, artificial intelligence or electric vehicles, Washington is seeking to stay ahead or catch up with Beijing in various areas -- including to prevent advanced tools from falling into the hands of the Chinese military.
A major target during former president Donald Trump's term was telecoms giant Huawei, which the United States sought to keep out of its 5G networks and those of allies.
Restrictions grew under the Joe Biden administration, especially involving cutting-edge semiconductors necessary in AI development.
The goal, said Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in October, is to limit Chinese access to advanced chips that could fuel breakthroughs in AI and sophisticated computers that are critical to military applications.
In the field of critical minerals, of which Beijing has ample supplies, Washington has also been seeking to circumvent China.
- Trade -
While China is no longer the top source from which the United States imports goods, the perceived trade imbalance between the world's two biggest economies remains a concern.
Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods and attempts to secure a deal to rebalance trade has failed to turn the tide, and the Biden administration has largely maintained levies while pursuing efforts in "friendshoring" -- or diversifying supply chains across allies and partners.
There appears to be some impact with US-China trade growing less quickly, although a deeper look shows that some Chinese products are simply routed through other countries.
- Currency war? -
The question of exchange rates and the use of currency for political and commercial purposes has been a recurring issue, too.
For years, Washington has accused Beijing of maintaining the yuan at a deliberately lower rate against the dollar in order to promote exports.
In November, the US Treasury flagged China's "lack of transparency" in its exchange rate mechanism, saying this warranted monitoring.
The concern now centers on the internationalization of the yuan, with the Chinese currency still little present in commercial exchanges.
As of end-2023, fewer than 3.5 percent of payments via the SWIFT international electronic transfer system were made in yuan -- compared with nearly 19 percent in euros and more than 50 percent in dollars.
China wants the yuan to establish itself, especially in trade, as a safeguard against potential US sanctions. Beijing in turn believes that Washington is weaponizing the dollar.
Biden or Trump, hawkish economic approach on China to intensify
Washington (AFP) Feb 25, 2024 -
In a shift from tit-for-tat tariffs and strong-arm tactics to tech restrictions and investment curbs, US policy towards China has become more targeted under President Joe Biden -- though still hardline.
Despite differences between Democrats and Republicans, analysts expect Washington's approach to Beijing will only become tougher, whether Biden or former president Donald Trump wins another White House term.
"I think the direction of pressure in Washington is absolutely in one direction, which is more hawkishness," said Joshua Meltzer, senior fellow at Brookings Institution.
Already, Biden has largely maintained Trump-era tariffs, rolled out export control restrictions to curtail Beijing's ability to buy and make certain high-end chips, and unveiled an order to curb outbound investments to China.
Officials are also seeking to boost self-reliance in key areas including clean energy supply chains, while further action on data flows is expected.
Meltzer told AFP: "There is currently congressional pressure to do more."
- Policy, not partisan split -
With citizen concerns over trade, business and manufacturing cutting across party lines, the preferred degree of toughness on China tends to be a policy rather than partisan divide, said Jamieson Greer, partner at law firm King & Spalding.
Greer, formerly US Trade Representative chief of staff during the Trump administration, believes there are two camps in Washington.
One views China as an existential threat to the economy, national security or both, therefore justifying strong and broad protection measures.
The other is cautious about overestimating the China threat, and concerned with imposing tough trade and economic measures.
But both groups assume risks associated with China -- a shift that became prominent nearly a decade ago.
"It became big during the 2016 presidential election cycle, when candidate Donald Trump was very, very vocal about trade issues and China in particular," Greer said.
Trump gave voice to something many people "agreed with on both sides of the aisle" but were unwilling to say aloud, he added.
- Different policies -
But experts agree that a second Biden or Trump administration would diverge on policies.
The Biden administration does not expect to "reach a deal with China, where they're going to make these major reforms and changes," Meltzer said.
"It's really about, how do you adjust to the reality of China? How do you bring allies along?"
There is a "notion of derisking from a security perspective as well," he added.
But the Trump administration favored using US leverage to broker a deal changing China's behavior, Meltzer said, referring to the Phase One trade agreement culminating from a truce in the escalating tariffs war.
Should Trump be elected, some expect to see higher tariffs targeting China, given his proposal of more than 60 percent levies on Chinese goods.
The move could draw Chinese retaliation, stalling trade between the world's top two economies.
"I think we'd see a lot more return to tariffs, I think we'd also see a lot less cooperation with allies," Meltzer said. "The US would be more isolated on some of these issues."
Biden has shown willingness to maintain existing measures on China while being narrow and focused in future moves, and this is unlikely to change, Greer added.
A second Biden administration could also seek cooperation with China on issues like climate and have more room to engage -- given reduced pressure to appear tough on Beijing to deflect criticism from Trump, analysts believe.
- Domestic policies -
Ongoing efforts to maintain a US lead in tech will probably continue, no matter who wins the election.
But a Trump administration could show less support for onshoring advanced semiconductor manufacturing via initiatives like the CHIPS Act, or for major investments in onshoring electric vehicle and other critical mineral supply chains, said Paul Triolo, associate partner for China at Albright Stonebridge Group.
But he added: "It is likely that regardless of who wins in November, the US administration would continue to implement existing technology controls, and expand controls into other technology sectors."
These include biotechnology, electric and smart vehicles.
Last month, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warned that Chinese-made EVs bring security risks, given the vast amounts of data collected.
Washington would also likely tighten restrictions on transfers of certain types of data to companies and organizations in China, Triolo said.
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