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TRADE WARS
Rising Chinese wages a headache for US firms
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) March 23, 2012

Irish leader headed to China for trade talks
Dublin (AFP) March 25, 2012 - Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny begins a four-day trade mission in China on Sunday, one month after the Asian giant's leader-in-waiting paid a visit to Dublin.

Kenny will meet business leaders in Shanghai before heading to Beijing for talks with Premier Wen Jiabao and Vice President Xi Jinping, who spent three days in Ireland in February.

Speaking ahead of his departure, Kenny said Ireland had been working hard to boost its image in China as it seeks investment as well as new markets for Irish goods to help the eurozone member country emerge from a deep recession.

Ireland was forced to seek a 85 billion euro ($112 billion) rescue package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in November 2010, after massive debt and deficit problems left the economy on the verge of collapse.

"We have greatly appreciated the positive signals from China in support of Europe's efforts to resolve the sovereign debt crisis" that has also seen Greece and Portugal receive bailout funds, Kenny said.

"There is no doubt that this has helped to stabilise financial markets and in the process made it much easier for us in Ireland to address our own problems," he added.

Kenny emphasised the similarities between China and Ireland, saying both are moving towards "a knowledge-based economy built on innovation and technology, and our companies have all the elements for working more closely together."

The taoiseach will also seek to boost the number of Chinese tourists in Ireland and to increase cultural links between the two nations.

Ireland was the only EU country that Xi visited on his international tour last month. Although his stop was focused on trade, the Chinese vice-premier also took time to try out Gaelic football and attend a performance of Riverdance.


After decades of US caterwauling about the crippling impact of China's low labor costs on domestic manufacturing, firms state-side now fret about the impact of rising Chinese wages.

First came anger, then depression and then acceptance.

In the three decades since Deng Xiaoping began opening China's economy, US manufacturers have gone through something resembling Elisabeth Kuebler-Ross's five stages of grief.

Industry cried foul, then groped around for solutions, before accepting the rules of the game had changed -- deciding to make a buck by offshoring some of their own production to China.

To be sure, there are still frequent spasms of anger over China's ability to produce goods at "unfair" prices, notably in election years.

But the bitter pain of jobs lost and factories closed has been sweetened just slightly over the years.

Using cheap Chinese laborers has resulted in $499 iPads, bumper corporate profits and -- in turn -- fatter pensions for those who have stock-based plans.

But there are already signs that this low-cost, high-reward Chinese paradigm is coming to an end.

Late Thursday, US footwear giant Nike reported it had made even more profit than it did the quarter before, yet its stock sank.

Investors hacked about $1 billion off the company's value on Friday because of a reference to "declining gross margin" stashed in the bowels of the firm's quarterly report.

The details are complicated, but Nike's jargon in part referred to rising wages in places like China taking a chunk out of profits.

Indeed, the details show rising wages -- along with some other factors like higher material costs -- caused Nike's margins to fall two percent in just one year.

That spells extra costs worth tens -- if not hundreds -- of millions of dollars.

But it is far from enough to make Nike's business unviable, so why the worry?

According to Sara Hasan, an analyst who follows Nike for investment firm McAdams Wright Ragen, the concern is that wages in China are only going to increase from here on in.

"It's a very big deal, and it's a longer-term issue definitely," she said.

In the last year, wages in China's southern industrial belt have risen 10 percent, according to a report by Standard Chartered. They rose 11 percent the year before that.

The Shanghai authorities recently announced the minimum wage will rise 13 percent, doubtless prompted by labor shortages and worker unrest.

"As (China's) economy grows and as the middle class grows, I think the pressure is going to continue," said Hasan.

Nike itself admits the costs are unlikely to fall any time soon: "While some raw material costs are starting to ease, we have not seen them retreat to their previous levels; for other input costs such as labor, upward pressure continues," CEO Parker told investors.

That leaves US manufacturers with only a handful of options: accept lower profits, pass the cost on to consumers or lower labor costs some other way.

Part of the answer for Lacrosse, a small Wisconsin-based footwear firm, was to shift some production from China to Vietnam, where wages are still relatively low.

"As costs in China have grown... we make a growing amount of our product in Vietnam," said Michael Newman, who deals with investor relations for the company.

Western China, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia are also cited as possible alternate production locations.

That has the added benefit of diversifying the supply base, but moves production away from China's lucrative domestic market.

For bigger firms, the answer may be to trim supply chains or tap consumers.

According to Hasan, Nike is in a good position to leverage its brand strength and pass prices on to US and other consumers.

In the longer term, Nike also hopes to cut production costs the old-fashioned way, through increased automation.

The company has invested its hopes in FlyKnit technology, which knits a shoe upper in one go, reducing the need for workers to assemble dozens of pieces.

Consulting firm Accenture believes that through a mix of these responses, manufacturers with a large footprint in China can handle wage increases of as much as 30 percent without too much trouble.

"However," its report published earlier this year noted, "China's low-labor cost advantage will not last forever."

That will undoubtedly change the rules of the game for US manufacturers once again.

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China, Indonesia sign deals worth $17 bln
Beijing (AFP) March 23, 2012 - China and Indonesia signed deals worth at least $17 billion Friday in fields such as hydroelectricity and mining during a visit to Beijing by the Southeast Asian nation's leader, state media said.

The agreements come as the two countries, both highly dependent on exports, seek to make up for sagging demand in Europe's debt-hit economies and a US economy still struggling to recover from the 2008 housing mortgage crisis.

They cover a wide range of industries including hydroelectric generation, mining, and steel making, and were signed by businessmen from the two countries during President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's three-day visit to China.

"Indonesia welcomes Chinese enterprises to expand their investment in Indonesia and to participate in major infrastructure projects," Yudhoyono said, according to a statement posted on the Chinese foreign ministry website.

Trade between the two Asian nations has steadily increased in recent years, reaching $60.5 billion last year compared with just $2.9 billion in 2000, according to the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade.

The two countries aim to increase bilateral trade further to $80 billion by 2015, and Yudhoyono said he was confident this previously-announced target would be met.

Chinese President Hu Jintao, meanwhile, told Yudhoyono Beijing wanted to increase cooperation with Jakarta "in the fields of oil and gas, minerals, electricity, and clean and sustainable energy."

"In these times of a complex and ever-changing international situation, this visit by the President will strengthen strategic communication between our two countries and expand practical cooperation," Hu said in talks with Yudhoyono.

"This is highly significant for taking the China-Indonesian strategic partnership to an even higher level."

China is the world's second-largest economy, and Indonesia the biggest in Southeast Asia.



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TRADE WARS
Brazil's Rousseff to attend BRICS summit in India
Brasilia (AFP) March 22, 2012
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff plans to travel to India next week for a summit of emerging powers and separate talks with Indian leaders on defense and bilateral trade, officials said Thursday. The March 28 summit will bring together leaders of the BRICS (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa) for talks aimed at boosting cooperation among the five nations. Brazil, India and S ... read more


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