Despite White House claims to the contrary, what is happening in Iraq looks more like civil war by the day.

Bush's trip comes just days after Vice President Dick Cheney's two-hour political pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia this past weekend, where the Saudi monarch most certainly passed on his fears of expanding Shiite influence in the region.

This sudden burst of diplomatic activity -- at the highest level -- is quite revealing. Indeed, it tells us that in its final two-year stretch in office the Bush administration is starting to pay particular attention to two key issues brought about by the U.S. invasion of Iraq: the deteriorating security situation in that country and the rise of Iranian influence.

The working visits by the president and vice president to the Middle East demonstrates that despite the past rhetoric of winning the war and "staying the course," the Bush administration is beginning to see the gravity of the situation in the Middle East.

The civil war, which the administration still insists is not taking place as Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites slaughter each other by the hundreds on a daily basis, is nevertheless worrying Iraq's neighbors. If Washington seems to wave off the likelihood of civil war, Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, all of whom share borders with Iraq, are deeply concerned by what is going on and fear a spillover of hostilities.

And after three years of fighting a ghostly insurgency, nearly 3,000 U.S. military fatalities and several tens of thousands of Iraqis killed, the Bush administration now appears to be shifting into faster diplomatic gear. The president's and vice president's visits to the Middle East come as the administration is looking at two key issues. The first of course is Iraq.

Washington wants to see the Iraqis assume greater responsibility for their security and their defense. And the sooner that happens, the better, as it would allow U.S. forces to begin deploying out of Iraq. U.S. forces have now been engaged in Iraq longer than the United States was engaged in World War II. Bush will undoubtedly pressure the Iraqi prime minister to engage more aggressively in the fight against sectarian violence and terrorism.

The second issue -- Iran -- a major preoccupation for Washington's allies in the region was made evident by the fact that the vice president undertook to travel nearly 18,000 miles for a two-hour meeting with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah.

Iran's rising influence under the guidance of the Islamic republic's mullahs, combined with its alliance with Syria, has got the Saudis and other Sunni states in the area wondering just how to put the Shiite genie that was let out by the U.S. invasion of Iraq back in the bottle.

Meanwhile in Israel, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has proposed to the Palestinians what appears to be a workable peace initiative under which the Palestinians could attain independence. Olmert suggested he is willing to swap "large numbers of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails," including some with heavy sentences, in exchange for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier abducted by Hamas and other militants in Gaza last July.

Olmert has proposed that the Palestinians could have their own state that would include a contiguous territory. In exchange he asked that Palestinians renounce terrorism and recognize Israel's right to exist. He also demands that Palestinians drop their request for the "right of return," (of Palestinians refugees to lands inside Israel proper).

Then again, it may not be sheer coincidence that the Israeli prime minister renews his efforts to bring the Palestinians to the negotiating table at the same time that the American president and his vice president have been clocking-up air miles in efforts to defuse the crisis in Iraq. Both the United States and Israel have tried military options with little success. Maybe diplomacy will fare better.

(Comments may be sent to [email protected].)

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