Coal-dependent Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, is one of the world's top emitters but President Prabowo Subianto last year committed to phasing out coal in just 15 years and reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century.
Indonesia's new national electricity master plan announced in November projects growth in renewables but also a sharp rise in coal generation beyond 2030, according to a report by London-based energy think tank Ember.
The new plan raises "concerns that Indonesia's latest electricity masterplan could significantly increase coal power generation", Ember said.
Jakarta previously said its renewable energy mix would reach 44 percent of its power generation by 2030.
But the new plan includes 26.8 gigawatts of new coal capacity over the next seven years, Ember said, with more than 20 GW of that coming from so-called captive coal expansion, which supplies energy to industry rather than the grid.
Indonesia currently operates 49.7 GW of coal-fired power plants, according to Ember, and the government says 253 coal-fired power plants were operational as of December.
But dozens more coal-fired plants remain under construction, including captive coal plants.
State electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara did not respond to a request for comment.
"Expanding captive coal while global markets shift to clean energy makes little economic sense," said Dody Setiawan, Ember's senior climate and energy analyst for Indonesia.
"Committing to a clear path for coal phase-out while prioritising renewables would help Indonesia address the multi-faceted challenges that all coal-dependent economies must face."
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), which said much of the captive coal growth was centred on Sulawesi and North Maluku islands, issued a warning to locals.
They "will have to bear the highest health and economic burden from pollution exposure," said CREA analyst Katherine Hasan.
Indonesia secured a $20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership with developed nations in 2022, which was supposed to speed its clean energy transition, but little of that money has been seen so far.
This month the environment ministry rushed to again pledge Jakarta's support for the landmark Paris climate deal after its climate envoy suggested the agreement was irrelevant after US President Donald Trump again withdrew from it.
The report said Indonesia needed to do much more to meet the Paris agreement target by 2050.
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