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IMF's Lagarde urges US, others to reject 'dystopian' path
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Dec 5, 2018

Trump opens door to more lengthy China trade talks
Washington (AFP) Dec 4, 2018 - US President Donald Trump on Tuesday opened the door to more lengthy talks with China to resolve the damaging trade dispute beyond the announced 90-day timeline.

And while Trump has promised big results from the negotiations, he also threatened more tariffs if the sides cannot reach an agreement, which would add to the economic pain already inflicted on American consumers and companies.

Dubbing himself "Tariff Man," Trump said on Twitter he would not hesitate to make China "pay for the privilege" of selling in the US market.

Trump repeated his frequent claim that the United States was bringing in billions of dollars in tariffs on foreign goods to "MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN." But it is US consumers and businesses who pay for tariffs in the form of higher costs and prices.

The change in tone and the increased confusion over what was achieved at the meeting contributed to a sharp decline in the US stock market, which plunged on Tuesday, driven lower by trade worries and fears for future US economic growth.

Analysts at Schwab said in a commentary the market was concerned that "uncertainty appears to be resurfacing on whether a permanent deal can be reached."

In a series of tweets on Tuesday, Trump held out the possibility the talks could extend beyond March 1.

The clock started ticking on December 1, when Trump met in Buenos Aires with China's leader Xi Jinping and agreed to work towards an agreement to roll back the exchange of tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in two-way trade.

"The negotiations with China have already started. Unless extended, they will end 90 days from the date of our wonderful and very warm dinner with President Xi in Argentina," Trump tweeted.

Appearing at a Wall Street Journal event on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said markets were in a "wait-and-see" mode.

"The market is trying to figure out, is there going to be a real deal at the end of 90 days or not," Mnuchin said.

- 'I am Tariff Man' -

After the Saturday meeting, the United States agreed to hold off on Trump's plan to raise the tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 percent beginning January 1, leaving them at the current 10 percent rate.

In return, Washington said China would purchase "very substantial" amounts of US agricultural, energy, industrial and other products.

Trump also said China would "reduce and remove" tariffs of 40 percent on cars, though Beijing has yet to confirm the move.

While US officials said the agreement would include specific timelines and policy reforms, the comments from Trump and others have not provided much clarity on the outcome of Saturday's highly-anticipated meeting.

And the tone of Trump's latest tweets show an apparent shift from 24 hours earlier, when he was unreservedly triumphant, saying relations with China had taken a "BIG leap forward."

On Tuesday, he said US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would lead the talks to see "whether or not a REAL deal with China is actually possible."

And while Trump said he would "happily sign" a fair deal that addresses US concerns, he added a warning to "remember, I am a Tariff Man."

"When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so," Trump tweeted.

American farmers have been hit hard by China's retaliation on US farm goods, especially soybean exports, which have plummeted due to a 25 percent tariff imposed by Beijing.

Trump said China "is supposed to start buying Agricultural product and more immediately."

But there remains no timetable or agenda for the formal talks, and the uncertainty has dampened enthusiasm on US stock markets which retreated on Tuesday after an initial bout of optimism led to modest gains on Monday.

Countries that go it alone and fail to adapt to new economic realities could face a "dystopian" future where an angry majority is left behind, IMF chief Christine Lagarde warned Tuesday.

She urged world leaders to remember the lesson of the global recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis: "International cooperation is essential, not optional."

The managing director of the Washington-based global crisis lender issued yet another plea to governments, notably the United States, to back away from protectionism and confrontation.

At a time when US President Donald Trump is engaged in global trade conflict that the IMF says puts world economic growth at risk, Lagarde said she is pleased by the "significant progress" over the weekend to defuse the US-China trade dispute.

But asked about the sharp decline in US stock markets -- which fell more than three percent due to concerns over the trade war and the impact on the economy -- Lagarde urged patience.

"Compared to what we've gone through it's progress," she said.

Lagarde delivered her message about the need for global economic cooperation wrapped in praise for the key leadership role the US plays in the world.

In the economic prosperity that followed World War II, "We learned from the past, got creative, and changed for the better," she said in a lecture at the US Library of Congress.

"None of this would have been possible without the United States. This country challenged the international economic order when it needed challenging. It forged compromise when compromise was necessary."

And it was in the US interest to take a leading role because "a stronger and more stable world paid dividends for the US," she said.

"This success did not come at the expense of other nations," Lagarde said. "On the contrary. This country's collaborative leadership paved the way not only for decades of opportunity here in America, but also for growth that spread across the world."

That contrasts sharply with Trump's "America First" rhetoric and his view of trade as a zero-sum game in which imports equate to countries taking money out of the country.

- Anger and anxiety -

Policies like that could lead to an "age of anger," where inequality soars and millions are left behind, Lagarde cautioned.

Much of the anger erupting worldwide and the economic anxiety "is a legacy of the crisis," she said in response to a question.

In Britain, it was channeled into fear of foreigners and led to Brexit, but she said there is "more regret in the UK than there was only six months ago," as the consequences of leaving the European Union become apparent.

To avoid the "dystopian scenario," countries must adapt, improving cooperation among governments, to strengthen oversight, reduce corruption and reform tax collection. That will free up resources to improve infrastructure and education.

That also means fixing the trading system to reduce tensions, including getting rid of subsidies and protecting technology -- issues Trump has complained about.

The rapidly changing global economy offers "a fundamental choice: stand still and watch discord and discontent bubble over into conflict, or move forward," Lagarde said.

"Because more than ever before, what happens in one nation can impact all nations."


Related Links
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