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UPI Israel Correspondent Tel Aviv (UPI) Nov 17, 2006 Hezbollah and Palestinian militants launched more than 5,000 short-range rockets at Israel this year, proving at least one thing: Israel failed to stop that fire. What made its failure even more glaring was the fact that rocket launchings increased while Israel was attacking the militants. The war in Lebanon ended with Hezbollah firing some 250 rockets in one day. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas derisively referred to the Qassam rockets as "pipes," but Wednesday one of those "pipes" killed a 57-year-old woman. The explosions terrorized the city of Sderot. The attacks thus proved the Arabs have an effective way of hurting Israel despite its technological superiority, electronic fences and in some places high walls along boundary lines. "High-trajectory fire is targeted easily at Israel without the need for much complicated preparation," maintained Col. in the reserves Gabriel Siboni, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies. American and Israeli experts tried to develop a laser beam that would melt rockets in midair but the project, called Nautilus, was shelved. Some Israeli politicians and military experts suggested re-occupying Gaza Strip areas. Then the army could closely control launching sites and try and stem the flow of advanced arms, including missiles, from the Sinai in tunnels to Gaza. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert rejected the idea when he talked to reporters accompanying him Thursday on his way back from the United States. All those who advocate a move similar to the 2002 Operation Defensive Shield, when Israel re-occupied the West Bank, must remember that "terror never ended completely and that in the (West) Bank it continues to this day," he said. A large-scale military operation would inflict many casualties; policing the occupied areas would be costly; Israel would be required to assume responsibility for the welfare of impoverished residents there; and the world that acclaimed Israel for last year's withdrawal is going to criticize it for returning. Inside Israel, right-wing parties who fought the withdrawal would claim that the developments vindicated them and that Israel must keep the Palestinian areas. Moreover, launching another war before the army corrects all the faults discovered during the Lebanon war is bound to cause uproar. Siboni, who was chief of staff of one of the four divisions that fought in Lebanon this summer, proposed several measures that, together, should reduce the rocket fire. "Any single approach should not be expected to be capable of eradicating the threat in one fell swoop," he wrote in the INSS' Strategic Assessment. Many of the measures he recommended are being implemented and his article demonstrated the complexity of the attempt to reduce rocket attacks. Intelligence is a key element, he wrote. "The raw materials' supply processes, manufacturing processes, transportation, launch, and escape of the launch unit are all links in the chain of the threat ... Quality intelligence regarding the people involved in the process and the facilities, vehicles, and other infrastructures will allow more effective operational activity." The intelligence should employ technological, forecasting and sensing means even though they do not provide a complete qualitative picture. Those should be complemented by spies and "interrogation of involved parties." The withdrawal from Gaza impaired the "human intelligence" gathering efforts. Israel must restore its ability to arrest people involved in terrorist activity or wanted for interrogation, Siboni wrote. "Creating the ability to carry out arrests, both in terms of the quality and quantity required, justifies rapid force assembly processes," he added. In recent years Israel honed the close cooperation between its intelligence and combat units so that it can immediately react to new information. The withdrawal limited Israel's ability to launch armored operations. That is why Israel carried out "specific strikes" and used "standoff fire" from afar. However, "over time, the nearly exclusive dependence on this means resulted in its erosion," Siboni maintained. He recommended sending elite units into Palestinian areas for "intelligence-based ground strikes, ambushes in expected areas of activity, and ... arrests for investigation and pre-emptive purposes." Assembling such a capability for several operations per night "is essential," he wrote. Standoff activity should be reserved "only for cases in which direct contact operations cannot be carried out to prevent an immediate attack." The army has halted the use of artillery following a shelling of Beit Hanoun in north Gaza that killed some 20 civilians. The military blamed a faulty circuit board for the mistaken targeting. However, tanks don't have the artillery's range and need a line of sight to their target. Elite infantry units may not be in a position to immediately strike at rocket launchers and weather conditions sometimes restrict the Air Force. Cannons can fire from miles away, round the clock. "This type of fire is highly effective, and experience shows that it is capable of reducing and disrupting rocket launches," Siboni wrote. With all that, experts must develop technological means to strike at rockets, divert them from their trajectory or, at least enable an immediate attack on the source of the fire seconds after the launch, he recommended. Meanwhile, in Sderot there is a proposal to equip school rooms with steel desks and chairs with steel plates. When an alert is sounded, children can crawl under the desks and pull the chairs over to create small, personal shelters.
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![]() ![]() Lebanon is a relatively small country, approximately the size of Rhode Island. Yet, it comes with problems larger than Texas. After years of relative calm and prosperity that followed a devastating 15-year civil war, Lebanon finds itself once again sitting on a tinderbox with a very short fuse. And there seems to be no shortage of instigators only too happy to strike that first match that would make Lebanon go up in smoke. |
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