"Success in Copenhagen is in sight," UN chief Ban Ki-moon stated, referring to the climate negotiations to take place in the Danish capital December 7-18.

He and Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen, both making exceptional appearances at the Trinidad summit despite not being Commonwealth members, stressed how encouraged they were by Britain and France offering to start a 10-billion-dollar fund for developing nations.

By showing willingness to meet "the need for money on the table," it was now "realistic" to expect Copenhagen to result in the framework for a treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012, Rasmussen said.

"Copenhagen will not be a talk shop," Ban said. "We will come out with a very concrete foundation for a legally binding treaty."

The sudden optimism contrasted sharply with predictions of failure at the climate talks as recently as two weeks ago.

Much of that stemmed from a joint overture by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy at the Commonwealth gathering, whose leaders represent two billion people, or a third of the planet's population.

The two European leaders proposed to compensate developing countries for the economic disadvantages they would face in cutting carbon emissions.

Britain said it had already set aside 1.3 billion dollars to be paid into the Copenhagen Launch Fund over the next three years.

"Poorer countries must have an understanding that the richer countries will help them adapt to climate change and make the necessary adjustments in their economies," Brown said on his website.

"We have got to provide some money to help that. Britain will do so, the rest of Europe will do so and I believe America will do so as well."

Sarkozy, who was also specially invited by Brown to address the Commonwealth summit, did not say how much France would contribute.

But he told reporters the fund would operate for the next three years, beyond which an "ambitious mechanism" for continued payments would be established.

The willingness of developed countries to ante up bolstered other moves that suggested nations were determined to reach an accord.

Important among those were carbon cut pledges by almost all the nations most responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.

China, the world's biggest polluter, has vowed to reduce "carbon intensity" as measured by unit of gross domestic product by 40-45 percent by 2020, compared to 2005 levels.

The United States, the other major contributor to global warming, is looking at curbing carbon emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020.

The European Union is unilaterally cutting emissions by 20 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, and is offering to go to 30 percent if other industrialised parties follow suit.

Brazil, the fourth-biggest greenhouse gas contributor because of deforestation, has offered a reduction of 36-39 percent based on its projected economic output in 2020.

Alone of the big polluting nations, India has not revealed any emission cut targets.

But after meeting Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Trinidad, Sarkozy said that he was confident "they will put some figures on the table" within days.

Rasmussen said more than 85 heads of state and government had accepted invitations to attend the Copenhagen conference, effectively turning it into a big summit.

Among those who have publicly said they are going are US President Barack Obama, Britain's Brown, France's Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang and Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

Sarkozy, however, criticized Obama's decision to turn up for just one day at the beginning of the negotiations, on December 9, instead of the crucial final days of summit when all the other leaders would be crunching figures and concessions.

He added that, if an agreement eluded Copenhagen, "it will be a historic failure."

earlier related report
China to keep pumping out carbon despite climate pledge
Beijing (AFP) Nov 27, 2009 - China is touting its carbon-limiting plan as a "major contribution" to the struggle against climate change, but its already massive greenhouse gas emissions will still rise for years to come.

The United States and Europe have announced plans to actually cut emissions of the greenhouse gases blamed for global warming, but China said Thursday it would seek only to reduce emissions as a percentage of the economy.

That means that China's world-leading emissions of carbon dioxide will continue to soar along with its fast-expanding economy, albeit at a slower pace, experts said.

"We think it represents a relatively small move away from business-as-usual for China and still implies quite a large growth in emissions," said Nick Mabey, chief executive of British environmental think tank E3G.

He said that "actual emissions -- instead of doubling -- will grow around 50 percent".

However, others believe emissions will grow by an even greater margin, based on Chinese economic growth rates of 8-12 percent in recent years.

"That means under the target, emissions will 'only' double," Frank Jotzo, deputy director of the Climate Change Institute at Australian National University, said.

China said that by 2020, it would cut the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40 to 45 percent compared to 2005 levels. That is essentially a pledge of greater energy efficiency.

With electricity demand soaring, China relies on carbon-belching coal to generate about 70 percent of its energy needs.

Beijing had previously announced plans to increase energy efficiency and the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels, and the new plan looks like merely an extension of those pledges, Jotzo said.

Still, while environmentalists called for more, China's announcement was broadly welcomed as a good start for the huge developing country in the run-up to Copenhagen climate talks next month.

China maintains its developing status exempts it from emissions cuts because its overriding goal is to reduce poverty among its 1.3 billion people.

But political concerns also prevent a deeper commitment.

China's top climate change negotiator Xie Zhenhua stressed Thursday the nation's "primary task" was economic growth.

The communist leadership, facing a gaping rich-poor divide and increasing social unrest, says it needs to maintain a minimum of eight percent GDP growth each year to maintain stability.

"Everyone would like to see China commit to an absolute limit but ... it doesn't want to limit its growth prospects," said Tom Grieder, Asia energy analyst at IHS Global Insight in London.

Xie declined to give a timeframe for when emissions would peak or estimate how much they would grow by 2020.

But even meeting the 2020 goals will be difficult, Greenpeace China climate campaigner Yang Ailun told AFP.

"(The target) means China will have to tackle its over-dependency on coal," Yang said, arguing that China needs an "energy revolution".

She called for a more aggressive push on renewable energy and a hefty carbon tax to discourage consumption -- something Beijing has been loathe to do out of concern for the economic impact.

China said it would push development of renewables, energy-saving technologies and nuclear power, and make unspecified adjustments to "fiscal, tax, and pricing" policies to meet the 2020 targets.

But observers noted that Beijing faces difficulty implementing nationwide initiatives due to vested interests, local resistance and widespread graft. And several existing energy-conservation initiatives have already foundered.

"That's the biggest hurdle. Many local officials don't do what the central government says," Grieder said.

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