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Hong Kong economic growth misses forecast in third quarter: data
Hong Kong economic growth misses forecast in third quarter: data
by AFP Staff Writers
Hong Kong (AFP) Oct 31, 2024

Hong Kong's economic growth in the third quarter missed analyst estimates as private consumption weakened, according to government figures released Thursday.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) between July and September grew by 1.8 percent year-on-year, well down from a forecast of 3.1 percent growth from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Hong Kong's economic recovery after the pandemic has largely mirrored China's trajectory, which has also saw slowing growth over the past year.

For the first three quarters, Hong Kong's real GDP increased by 2.6 percent on-year, according to advance estimates from the Census and Statistics Department.

Hong Kong's economy "continued to expand, though at a moderated pace, in the third quarter", a government spokesperson said.

The city's economy should continue to grow in the remainder of the year, even though global economic uncertainties and trade conflicts may affect exports, the spokesperson said.

"Monetary easing across major central banks and an improved outlook for the Mainland (Chinese) economy following the recent introduction of a wide range of stimulus measures would help support sentiment and activities in the domestic market."

Private consumption decreased by 1.4 percent in the third quarter, which authorities attributed to "the change in residents' consumption patterns".

Total export of goods increased by 3.9 percent in the same period, which the government described as "decelerated year-on-year growth alongside softening economic growth in some major markets".

Increasing cross-border activities between Hong Kong and China contributed to a "mild increase" of 2.4 percent in export of services.

Hong Kong leader John Lee announced a range of policies to bolster the city's lacklustre economy this month, including a proposal to enhance international gold trading.

Lee also slashed the import duty on strong liquor and laid out plans to attract foreign capital to Hong Kong.

Asian stocks mostly down after weak Wall Street lead
Hong Kong (AFP) Oct 31, 2024 - Asian stocks were mostly down on Thursday following a weak lead from Wall Street, though better-than-expected manufacturing data from China provided a glimmer of good news for local markets.

The three main US stock indices lost ground on Wednesday, and Asian investors appeared to be in a risk-averse mood ahead of a coin-toss US election and after a widely expected decision by the Bank of Japan to leave its main interest rate unchanged.

Tokyo fell by half a percent, weighed down by a stronger yen and a drop in stocks linked to the semiconductor industry, which also dipped on Wall Street.

The Bank of Japan said in an outlook report accompanying its rate announcement that there were "high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activities and prices".

Its decision to stand pat came after an election that saw the ruling coalition lose its majority in the lower house for the first time since 2009.

Businesses and economists worry that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will offer tax cuts and higher spending, and go slow on reforms needed to improve Japan's competitiveness as he courts support from other parties.

There are also concerns that the government may pressure the BoJ to take a break from its gradual normalisation of its ultra-loose monetary policy, even if it leads to a weaker yen.

The bank raised borrowing costs in March for the first time since 2007, and did so again in July.

It signalled Thursday that it would raise rates yet again if inflation developed as it expected, and noted it was paying "due attention" to other economies, particularly the United States, where the presidential election takes place on November 5.

Seoul was well down on Thursday, with Hong Kong, Sydney, Wellington, Mumbai and Manila in the red as well.

Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management attributed Asian markets' wobble to pre-vote "jitters", saying traders were "wary of taking on new risk as the US election countdown begins".

"The fear? A Trump win could trigger fresh tariffs on Asian exports, sending ripples across the region," he wrote.

Paris, London and Frankfurt also began the day with losses.

Mainland Chinese markets, however, bucked the trend, with healthy gains in Shanghai and Shenzhen following a forecast-beating manufacturing report from China.

Factory output expanded this month for the first time since April, official data showed Thursday, rare good news for leaders struggling to boost activity in the world's second-largest economy.

The country is battling sluggish domestic consumption, a persistent crisis in the property sector and soaring government debt -- all of which threaten Beijing's official growth target of five percent for this year.

"The PMIs have overstated the weakness in China's economy during the past year," Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a note.

"The good news is that, after turning a corner in September, the official surveys point to a further improvement in October, with an acceleration in manufacturing and services activity more than offsetting a further slowdown in construction."

Jakarta and Bangkok were also up, while Taipei was closed due to a typhoon.

Uncertainty over the outcome of the upcoming US elections, meanwhile, buoyed safe haven gold, which touched a fresh high just shy of $2,790 an ounce on Thursday.

And oil prices continued their rebound in Asian trade, fuelled by good news on demand from the United States, as well as by press reports that OPEC countries are considering postponing an increase in crude supply.

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