A report presented by Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Friday said that uncertainties surrounding the longevity of greenhouse gases made estimates beyond 2050 hazardous.
The publication came nearly a decade after Paris hosted the landmark 2015 Climate Change Conference, which adopted a legally binding treaty to limit global warming.
But based on scientific evidence, the 2015 targets of keeping the increase as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels will already be overshot in the early 2030s, the PNACC national climate change adaptation report said.
"Respecting the Paris accord remains the target," the report said. "But in the face of the risk of overshooting those targets it is necessary to prepare for global warming of four percent in 2100."
The world as a whole is on track for a median temperature increase of 3.2 Celsius by the end of the century, it said.
But mainland France, "which is heating up faster than other parts of the world", is projected to see an average temperature rise of two degrees in 2030, 2.7 degrees by 2050 and four degrees by 2100 on the basis of current commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
"This figure may seem abstract, but the consequences of this warming curve for our society are extremely concrete," the report said.
This scenario gives the government "a robust warming trajectory" on which to base its policies, it said.
Average temperatures will rise, heatwaves will become longer and more intense, there will be extreme flooding and extreme droughts and sea levels will rise.
Water management issues and soil erosion are among major expected challenges, it said.
If nothing is done, France's gross domestic product (GDP) risks dropping by 10 points by 2100. The agriculture sector would lose one billion euros ($1.1 billion) every year by 2050, and 500,000 homes would come under threat because of a receding coastline by the end of the century, the report said.
The government's plan contains 51 measures to protect the population, insure against risk, adapt human activity, protect natural and cultural spaces, and mobilise public services.
The plan will be updated regularly, it said.
UK govt urged to set 'ambitious' climate action target
London (AFP) Oct 25, 2024 -
UK government advisers on Saturday urged ministers to set an "ambitious" target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 81 percent by 2035 to combat climate change.
The last Conservative government in 2020 set a goal of 68 percent emission cuts on 1990 levels by 2030.
But the nation's top climate change advisory body said earlier this year that "only six years away, the country is not on track to hit this target" and urged the new Labour government to step up its efforts.
In a letter Saturday to Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) said the 81-percent target was "deliverable" and "informed by the latest science, technological developments, and the UK's national circumstances".
But it added: "Setting a target is not enough. The UK must back up its international commitments through actions here at home."
The committee said in July only around one-third of the emissions reductions the UK needed to make were currently covered by credible plans -- mostly in the electricity supply and surface transport sectors.
Labour, which won power in July, is due to unveil its climate plans under the global Paris Agreement, which requires countries to take action to mitigate the worst impacts of global warming.
The legally binding international treaty on climate change, signed in 2016, aims to keep global average temperature rises "well below" 2C above pre-industrial levels.
It also pushes to limit warming to 1.5C -- seen as the threshold beyond which the worst impacts of climate change will be felt.
- Call for action -
Countries are due to submit new five-year proposals to cover the period 2025 to 2035 ahead of COP30 in Brazil next December.
To meet the 1.5C target, the world's carbon emissions must fall to net zero by 2050.
Four years ago, the UK Conservative government set a goal of 68 percent emission cuts by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, which was in line with the CCC's advice at the time.
Environmental groups welcomed the committee's latest recommendation but urged the government to go even further.
"The Climate Change Committee has given ministers a useful benchmark for climate action but they may want to aim higher to show true global leadership and take full responsibility for the UK's historic role as a major carbon polluter," said Doug Parr, policy director at Greenpeace UK,
"Actions speak louder than words, and true leadership means the government must also set out tangible plans to deliver on its 2035 target," he added.
Isabella O'Dowd, WWF's head of climate policy, also called on the government to "show global leadership by going further and adopt climate targets for international aviation and shipping".
"Acting now will revitalise the UK economy, increase our energy security and support a just transition for all sectors," she said.
- Heat pumps -
The CCC previously urged action "across all sectors of the economy", laying out 10 recommendations including a mass roll-out of heat pumps and a far wider use of electric vehicles.
Everywhere, low-carbon technologies "must become the norm", while in UK energy production should move away from oil and gas, it said in its annual report in July.
Committee member Corinne Le Quere, a climatologist at the University of East Anglia, said the UK had achieved a nearly 50 percent fall in emissions, but action was needed across the board.
"The UK has focused a lot on the decarbonisation of its electricity network, exiting coal and the deployment of renewable energies, particularly wind power. But we haven't had enough attention paid to other sectors of the economy," she told AFP.
"The government really needs to diversify its measures so that the entire economy is decarbonised."
The UK's last coal-fired power station officially closed at the end of September -- a first among G7 nations.
Labour has said it wants to decarbonise the energy mix further, investing heavily in offshore and onshore wind, tidal power and nuclear.
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