European Green Deal could unintentionally raise global emissions
by Robert Schreiber
Berlin, Germany (SPX) Sep 22, 2024

The European Union's Green Deal aims for carbon neutrality by 2050. However, a new analysis published in 'Nature Sustainability' suggests that while the policy will reduce emissions in Europe, it could increase emissions elsewhere - by more than double the amount saved. The research, led by Professor Klaus Hubacek from the University of Groningen, shows that the Green Deal could lead to a 244.8% increase in emissions outside the EU compared to the reductions within its borders, particularly in sectors like land use and forestry.

The Green Deal promotes measures such as biodiversity enhancement, with plans to plant three billion trees in Europe. However, Hubacek points out that "trees require a lot of land that cannot be used to produce food. That means that food must be produced elsewhere, and to do this, land must be converted into cropland. This increases the carbon dioxide emission and reduces biodiversity." Hubacek explained that the EU might reduce emissions domestically but "'export' them to the countries that would produce our food, for example Africa or South America."

The Green Deal includes regulations to prevent importing products linked to deforestation, but Hubacek remains skeptical: "Nothing stops these other countries from growing products for Europe on existing farmland and felling forests to produce for the local market. There are simply too many uncertainties in these types of regulations." He also highlights the need for more data on land use impacts of other measures like organic farming.

Despite these challenges, the researchers offer solutions, including adopting a more plant-based diet - called the "planetary health diet" - which could significantly cut emissions. Hubacek noted, "By adopting the more plant-based 'planetary health diet', it is possible to save an enormous amount of carbon emissions." They also recommend phasing out food-based biofuels and improving agricultural efficiency in developing regions to reduce land use and preserve biodiversity.

While the report raises concerns, Hubacek believes the Green Deal can still be improved. "The programme is driven by techno-optimism, but our analysis underlines that there is no free lunch. I very much doubt that 'Green Growth' is possible, as everything you produce requires an input of resources. So we really need to consume less," he emphasized. With global warming on the verge of surpassing 1.5 C from the Paris Agreement and other environmental boundaries being crossed, Hubacek concludes, "It is time to implement measures that work."

Research Report:Global spillover effects of the European Green Deal and plausible mitigation options

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University of Groningen