The closely-watched announcement came as dozens of farmers protested outside the European Parliament building, angry over shrinking incomes, rising costs and what they say are increasingly onerous green regulations.
In unveiling the new target, the EU climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, said the bloc would strive for a "fair transition" -- allowing businesses to thrive and ensuring "nobody is left behind" as it seeks to become carbon-neutral by 2050.
"Based on the best available science, and a detailed impact assessment, we are recommending that the 2040 target should be a 90 percent emission cut" compared to 1990 levels, Hoekstra said.
In a sign of how politically fraught the environmental issue has become, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen gave key ground earlier on Tuesday by burying a plan to halve chemical pesticide use by the end of this decade.
She acknowledged the proposal had "become a symbol of polarisation", with the legislation stalled amid divisions between EU lawmakers and member countries.
The 27-nation European Union is already working towards an interim target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030.
But rising discontent could hamper attempts to adopt the 2040 goal of 90 percent cuts.
Far-right and anti-establishment parties have latched onto the farmers' movement and are predicted to make big gains in June elections to choose the members of the next EU assembly.
That vote will also lead to a new commission late this year. Von der Leyen has not yet said whether she intends to seek a new mandate at its helm.
- Backlash -
There is an increasingly vocal backlash from some industries to the bloc's climate policies and several national leaders are now calling for a "pause" in new environmental rules.
Eleven EU countries, including France, Germany and Spain had sent a joint letter to Brussels saying that the transition for an "ambitious" 2040 target needs to be "fair and just" and "leave no-one behind, especially the most vulnerable citizens".
The recommended target given on Tuesday was accompanied by new post-2030 climate projections that the commission was required to produce in the wake of the COP28 UN climate negotiations that took place in December.
The next European Commission will be tasked with turning the outline into proposed legislation ahead of next year's international climate summit, COP30.
The 2040 plan would require a sizeable effort from every sector of the economy -- from power generation to farming, which accounts for 11 percent of EU greenhouse gas emissions.
- 'Kid gloves' -
But for environmental groups, the European Commission's ambition fell well short of what was needed.
The bloc's 2040 targets are expected to rely in part on the capture and storage of ambitious volumes of carbon dioxide -- incensing campaigners who criticise the technologies as untested and instead want to see pledges to cut gross emissions.
Others rounded on the absence of a target date for phasing out fossil fuels and related subsidies.
"This is about as meaningful as a target to prevent lung cancer without any plan to end smoking," said Greenpeace campaigner Silvia Pastorelli.
With the UN's climate change body vying to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels and "considering the EU's responsibility for historical emissions, it would be fairer to aim for zero net emissions by 2040," the WWF group said.
It lamented the commission dropping a goal of cutting agricultural emissions -- which account for 11 percent of overall EU emissions -- by 30 percent, as had been evoked in a previous working document.
The European Consumer Organisation BEUC said that "however hard the Commission tries to handle farmers with kid gloves, facts are stubborn things: our food and agriculture systems contribute a big chunk of the EU's climate impact".
What's at stake in EU's 2040 climate target
Brussels (AFP) Feb 6, 2024 -
The European Commission unveiled Tuesday its next major target for cutting the bloc's global warming emissions.
Here is what is at stake:
- The end goal -
The 27-nation European Union has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050, and is already working to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels.
For the next milestone, 2040, the commission recommended a net drop of 90 percent -- maintaining roughly the same pace of cuts.
The next commission, to be appointed after June's European elections, will be tasked with turning the advice into legislation for member states and EU lawmakers to consider ahead of next year's COP30 climate conference.
- A second Green Deal? -
If the EU fully implements the measures of the existing Green Deal -- in transport, renewables, carbon trading -- it will come close to meeting its 90 percent target, the commission says.
But many of the laws in the sweeping deal have 2030 as a target, and will need updating and expanding.
Another concern is that too little money has been put on the table to fund the transition.
All accept, however, that greening Europe's economy will not be a painless process, as Brussels takes on polluting industries and seeks to shift entrenched consumer lifestyles.
As a result, Brussels is putting a new emphasis on social protections and supporting European businesses as it forges ahead on climate.
- Competitive advantage? -
Adolfo Aiello, of the Eurofer steel federation, is among those concerned about the scale of the task ahead -- and the potential hit to Europe's competitiveness.
But Neil Makaroff, of the Strategic Perspectives think tank, is more optimistic on the advantages of transitioning to clean energy.
He sees the 90 percent target as "the first brick of a reindustrialisation plan that completes the Green Deal and has the potential to bring investment, factories and jobs back to Europe".
The EU is currently negotiating a regulation aimed at boosting the deployment of net-zero technologies.
Beyond that, Brussels has touted future tools to support clean tech firms until they become commercially viable, through tax breaks, regulation and access to public tenders.
- Energy -
The proposal foresees fossil fuel consumption for energy purposes to fall by 80 percent by 2040 compared to 2021, though only coal will be phased out.
It plans for the electricity sector to be "close to full decarbonisation" by the second half of the 2030s, thanks to a combination of renewables, hydrogen and nuclear.
In a significant shift, it also leverages nuclear power through an "industrial alliance" to accelerate the deployment of next-generation Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
The plan fell far short of a call by eight NGOs including WWF and Greenpeace, which had urged the EU to "set clear fossil fuel phase-out dates."
Dominic Eagleton, at Global Witness, warned that targets for emission cuts that did not include a plan to exit fossil fuels "simply aren't credible".
"It's like building a bike without pedals," he said.
- Carbon capture -
Based on the EU's calculations, meeting a 90 percent target would require a massive ramping up of its capacity to sequester carbon -- outlined in a strategy for "industrial carbon management" also unveiled Tuesday.
The commission plan would involve capturing around 280 million tonnes of carbon per year by 2040, with about two thirds sequestered underground.
Joop Hazenberg, director of the Carbon Capture and Storage Association that represents the industry, said there was a growing acceptance that "you can only get so far with renewable electrons and with renewable hydrogen, and that you cannot go to the last mile".
But the Real Zero Europe campaign of 140 NGOs has urged the EU to change tack, calling carbon removal technologies "dangerous distractions" and a "smokescreen for continued use of fossil fuels".
- Agriculture -
Emissions from agriculture -- two thirds of which are linked to methane and manure from livestock farming, and the rest to nitrogen-based fertilisers -- account for 11 percent of the bloc's total emissions.
The commission plan references "good practices" intended to raise the amount of carbon that is naturally absorbed by soils and forests.
But it dropped a reference to a potential 30 percent cut in agricultural emissions, as evoked in a previous working document, calling instead for a distributed effort involving the broader agri-food sector and consumers.
- And the cost... -
Brussels estimates total investment needs to meet its 2040 target at around 1.53 trillion euros ($1.65 trillion) per year between 2031 and 2050.
A colossal sum, but one that it sets against a "far larger and growing" cost of inaction linked to climate change and extreme weather events, and continued imports of fossil fuels.
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