Chinese exports soared in March ahead of Trump's 'Liberation Day'
By Mary YANG
Beijing (AFP) April 14, 2025

Chinese exports soared more than 12 percent last month, according to data Monday, beating expectations as businesses rushed to get ahead of swingeing tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on his so-called "Liberation Day".

Beijing and Washington have been locked in a fast-moving, high-stakes game of brinkmanship since Trump launched a global tariff assault that has particularly targeted Chinese imports.

Tit-for-tat exchanges have seen US levies imposed on China rise to 145 percent, and Beijing setting a retaliatory 125 percent toll on US imports.

Figures from the General Administration of Customs showed a 12.4 percent jump in overseas shipments, more than double the 4.6 percent predicted in a Bloomberg survey.

Imports during the same period fell 4.3 percent, an improvement on the first two months of the year in a sign that domestic consumption was rebounding.

"At present, China's exports are indeed facing a complex and severe external situation, but the sky will not fall down," Lyu Daliang, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, told a news conference after the data was released.

Beijing also said Monday that the United States remained the largest single overseas destination for Chinese goods from January to March, amounting to $115.6 billion.

Last month, which saw a second round of US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, the country's exports to the United States increased by about nine percent year-on-year, Beijing said.

China's top leaders have set an ambitious annual growth target of around five percent, vowing to make domestic demand its main economic driver.

But its fragile recovery faces fresh headwinds from Trump's trade war.

The US side appeared to dial down the pressure on Friday, listing tariff exemptions for smartphones, laptops, semiconductors and other electronic products of which China is a major source.

- Frontloading -

Analysts attributed the March surge to a rush to export ahead of Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs on all trade partners that sent global markets tumbling.

"The strong export data reflect frontloading of trade before the US tariffs were announced," Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management said in a note.

"China's exports will likely weaken in coming months as the US tariffs skyrocket," he added.

"The uncertainty of trade policies is extremely high," Zhang said.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said in a note that "in anticipation of even higher duties, demand from US importers continued to hold up fairly well" in March.

"But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters," he added.

"It could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels."

And the world's second-largest economy continues to struggle with sluggish consumption and a prolonged debt crisis in its property sector.

Beijing last year announced a string of aggressive measures to reignite growth, including cutting interest rates, cancelling restrictions on homebuying, hiking the debt ceiling for local governments and bolstering support for financial markets.

But after a blistering market rally last year fuelled by hopes for a long-awaited "bazooka stimulus", optimism waned as authorities refrained from providing a specific figure for the bailout or fleshing out any of the pledges.

China, Vietnam sign agreements after Xi warns protectionism 'leads nowhere'
Hanoi (AFP) April 14, 2025 - China and Vietnam signed dozens of cooperation agreements Monday, strengthening ties between the communist-run countries after Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned that protectionism "leads nowhere" and that a trade war would have "no winners".

Xi is in Vietnam for the first leg of a Southeast Asia tour, as Beijing tries to present itself as a stable alternative to an erratic US President Donald Trump, who announced -- and then mostly reversed -- sweeping tariffs this month.

The Chinese president was welcomed to Hanoi Monday with a 21-cannon salute, a guard of honour and rows of flag-waving children at the presidential palace, before holding talks with Vietnam's top leaders including General Secretary To Lam.

The two neighbours signed 45 cooperation agreements, including on supply chains, AI, joint maritime patrols and railway development.

Xi's visit comes almost two weeks after the United States -- manufacturing powerhouse Vietnam's biggest export market in the first three months of the year -- slapped a 46 percent levy on Vietnamese goods as part of a global trade blitz.

Although the reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam and most other countries have been paused, China still faces enormous levies and is seeking to tighten regional trade ties and offset their impact during Xi's first overseas trip of the year.

Xi will depart Vietnam on Tuesday, travelling onwards to Malaysia and Cambodia on a tour that "bears major importance" for the broader region, Beijing has said.

Speaking during a meeting with Lam, Xi said Vietnam and China were "standing at the turning point of history... and should move forward with joint hands".

Xi earlier urged the two countries to "resolutely safeguard the multilateral trading system, stable global industrial and supply chains, and open and cooperative international environment".

He also reiterated Beijing's line that a "trade war and tariff war will produce no winner, and protectionism will lead nowhere" in an article published on Monday in Vietnam's major state-run Nhan Dan newspaper.

Vietnam's Lam said in an article posted on the government's news portal on Monday that his country "is always ready to join hands with China to make cooperation between the two countries more substantive, profound, balanced and sustainable".

- 'Bamboo diplomacy' -

Vietnam was Southeast Asia's biggest buyer of Chinese goods in 2024, with a bill of $161.9 billion, followed by Malaysia with Chinese imports worth $101.5 billion.

Firming up ties with Southeast Asian neighbours could also help offset the impact from a closed United States, the largest single recipient of Chinese goods last year.

Xi is visiting Vietnam for the first time since December 2023.

China and Vietnam, both ruled by communist parties, already share a "comprehensive strategic partnership", Hanoi's highest diplomatic status.

Vietnam has long pursued a "bamboo diplomacy" approach -- striving to stay on good terms with both China and the United States.

The two countries have close economic ties, but Hanoi shares US concerns about Beijing's increasing assertiveness in the contested South China Sea.

China claims almost all of the South China Sea as its own but this is disputed by the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Brunei.

The Chinese leader insisted in his article on Monday that Beijing and Hanoi could resolve those disputes through dialogue.

"We should properly manage differences and safeguard peace and stability in our region," Xi wrote.

"With vision, we are fully capable of properly settling maritime issues through consultation and negotiation," he said.

Vietnam's Lam said in his article that "joint efforts to control and satisfactorily resolve disagreements... is an important stabilising factor in the current complex and unpredictable international and regional situation".

After Vietnam, Xi will visit Malaysia from Tuesday to Thursday.

Malaysian Communications Minister Fahmi Fadzil said Xi's visit was "part of the government's efforts... to see better trade relations with various countries including China".

Xi will then travel to Cambodia, one of China's staunchest allies in Southeast Asia and where Beijing has extended its influence in recent years.

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