Chavez risks losing legislature majority
Caracas, Venezuela (UPI) Sep 24, 2010 Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez rallied supporters before Sunday's national assembly elections as opposition campaigners vowed to halve the government's parliamentary majority and limit its lawmaking powers. Chavez, 56, is widely tipped to win the legislative elections but the opposition is banking on small victories that will reduce a majority it handed to Chavez when it boycotted the 2005 election. If, as widely predicted, Chavez wins fewer than 110 seats then the opposition will have the chance to mount an obstructionist campaign against his revolutionary lawmaking in the legislature if not entirely succeed in derailing his Bolivarian revolution, analysts said. Opposition campaigners hope to capitalize on electricity and water shortages, high crime rates and government inefficiencies and build on promises of forcing change. Opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado urged voters to go to the polls without fear to make Venezuela "a safer country" -- a reference to opposition allegations of government intimidation of dissidents. The opposition, for once united under a Democratic Unity umbrella organization, after years of fractious politics, is hoping to remain in fighting form to confront and weaken Chavez before the 2012 presidential election but most analysis agree that is a tough call. "The battle goes beyond September 26," Chavez told supporters. "Its final objective is 2012, when we will again win the presidency." Despite the severity of shortages and government blunders, Chavez remains popular among the majority of the rural electorate while the opposition claims it has gained ground in the urban areas. Analysts said a significant withdrawal of urban support for Chavez could unleash another wave of nationalizations that Chavez used before to counter dissent among the urban business, industrial, academic and media communities. Opinion polls showed Chavez's approval ratings could already be suffering and an electoral setback could affect them further. Democratic Unity campaigners indicated they would capitalize on "Chavez's authoritarian style, one of the world's worst murder rates outside a war zone, a second year of recession and untamed inflation." Berta Morales, an opposition activist with Democratic Action said: "The people have fallen out of love with Chavez. We're coming back!" However, independent opinion differs. Chavez has already hinted at plans to redistribute power to create grassroots support that he can use to counteract any vote losses. Chavez received a blistering denunciation from popular Peruvian novelist Mario Vargas Llosa, who branded Chavez and other Latin American leaders as "caudillos" -- often translated as dim-witted dictators. "It seems hard that free elections can take place in Venezuela nowadays," Vargas Llosa said in an interview with the German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. "It's a pity because I'm convinced that the majority of Venezuelans are against Chavez, particularly the middle class, academia, trade unions, but I fear manipulation of the Sept. 26 elections."
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