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Beijing workers unconvinced of economic recovery
Beijing workers unconvinced of economic recovery
By Sam DAVIES
Beijing (AFP) Oct 18, 2024

As China on Friday reported its worst quarterly growth since the start of last year and officials unveiled more measures aimed at kickstarting the economy, workers speaking to AFP in Beijing were sceptical about their prospects.

The 4.6 percent expansion in July-September is the latest evidence that the country's post-pandemic recovery continues to sputter, as it suffers from sluggish consumption and a prolonged property sector crisis.

While officials have launched a string of policies over the past two years to reignite economic activity, they have had little effect.

"The economic situation is that it's very difficult to make money now," said 52-year-old coach driver Wang Youlong, who was taking a break before picking up a group of overseas tourists.

"My salary is too low, and sometimes (the company) doesn't send it on time."

There are hopes that a raft of stimulus unveiled since late last month will finally put the country back on track, but there is a worry that authorities are still not doing enough.

Wang said he thought every job was "difficult" at the moment.

His son had recently been forced to take a 3,000-yuan ($422) monthly pay cut, he told AFP, but still feared he might be let go in the future.

"You work today and don't know whether they'll want you to work tomorrow... employment is a big problem," he sighed.

In its announcement on Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics acknowledged a "complicated and severe external environment... as well as new problems of domestic economic development".

- Hoping for the 'bazooka' -

The measures unveiled last month were aimed at kickstarting consumption and addressing a painful debt crisis in the real estate sector.

The announcements -- the most far-reaching in years -- set off a blistering market rally fuelled by hopes for a long-awaited "bazooka" stimulus, but optimism has since tapered as a series of briefings left investors wanting.

Coach driver Wang said he hadn't noticed any benefits to his own life.

"It's not worth mentioning buying a house in Beijing, even in my hometown we can't afford it," he said.

In Beijing, people told AFP they remained cautious about spending.

A 25-year-old sales worker, also surnamed Wang, said she bought luxury items "less frequently than before".

"I don't have many sources of income and I hope to save some money," she told AFP.

Others were more sanguine.

"People may be pessimistic about the situation... but for me, I actually feel quite normal," Shiyi, a short-video industry worker, told AFP.

"The industry I work in is still in quite a trending state, so for now it will be affected but not too much."

Even so, Shiyi is holding off on large purchases.

"Property prices are quite tempting right now, but I still want to earn more first (before buying)."

Liu, a 55-year-old pharmaceutical worker who asked to only use his surname, said he thought "the economy isn't the same as five or even 10 years ago".

"But I think for Beijingers the level of the economy is quite developed," he said.

"I hope the economy will improve, but I can't judge if it will."

China posts slowest growth in over a year as property woes drag
Beijing (AFP) Oct 18, 2024 - China posted its slowest growth in a year and a half on Friday, underlining the deep economic woes the country faces as its central bank launched a new bid to boost markets and hinted at a further rate cut in coming months.

Investors are eagerly awaiting more detailed plans from Beijing, which has in recent weeks unveiled a slew of stimulus measures to reignite the world's number two economy.

Chinese leaders are targeting annual growth of five percent this year, but that goal is being challenged by sluggish consumption and a prolonged and debilitating debt crisis in the country's colossal property sector.

After a blistering market rally fuelled by hopes for a long-awaited "bazooka" stimulus, optimism has tapered as authorities refrained from providing a specific figure for the bailout.

On Friday, Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the economy expanded 4.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, down from 4.7 in the previous three months and the slowest since early 2023, when China was emerging from its strict zero-Covid policy.

The NBS acknowledged a "complicated and severe external environment... as well as new problems of domestic economic development".

Still, figures showing a forecast-beating rise in September retail sales -- a gauge of consumer activity -- provided a ray of light after a string of below-par readings on a range of indicators including inflation, investment and trade.

They came as China's central bank on Friday launched a swap facility for funds and insurers with an "initial application quota exceeding 200 billion yuan" ($28.1 billion), state media said.

The mechanism implemented by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will provide greater liquidity for capital markets, which policymakers hope will offer support for the wider economy.

- 'Rollercoaster' -

And in a possible sign of more relief to come, PBoC chief Pan Gongsheng said Friday that officials were considering a further cut to the amount commercial lenders must hold in reserve before the end of the year.

State media said just before Friday's GDP data release that the country's top banks had cut interest rates on yuan deposits for the second time this year as part of a move to boost lending.

Beijing has said it has "full confidence" in achieving its annual growth goal of five percent, but economists say more direct fiscal stimulus is needed to revive activity and restore business confidence.

"The will-they-won't-they of announcements has made the process a rollercoaster for markets," said Harry Murphy Cruise, Economist at Moody's Analytics.

He added that the latest data and new measures likely keep this year's growth target "within reach".

"But more is required if officials are to address the structural challenges in the economy."

Recent weeks have seen authorities unveil a raft of measures to funnel cash into the economy including a string of rate cuts and loosened restrictions on home-buying.

- 'Still unclear' -

The recent raft of announcements is a move "in the right direction", said Benson Wu, China and Korea economist at Bank of America Global Research.

"That said, the size and the form of fiscal supports are still unclear," Wu told AFP.

One major headache facing the economy has been a prolonged crisis in the property sector, which has long been a key driver of growth but is now mired in a sea of debt.

On Thursday, officials said they would boost credit available for unfinished housing projects to more than $500 billion, a move intended to boost activity in the property sector.

But as with a stream of much-touted briefings in the past week, the news conference failed to impress with its lack of big-ticket financial pledges.

Underlining the continued woes in the sector, data on Friday showed prices of new homes fell in 68 out of 70 large and medium-sized cities surveyed by statistics authorities in September.

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