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Analysis: 'So who won the war?'

Lebanese soldiers disembark from a landing craft in the port of Tyre 19 August 2006. Lebanese troops took up position early today at the unused Fatima Gate passageway, in the first army deployment on the border with Israel in decades. "We deployed at 4:00 AM (0100 GMT) on the Fatima Gate border point in the village of Kfar Kila," General Charles Shikhani told AFP. Photo courtesy of Ramzi Haidar and AFP.
by Joshua Brilliant
UPI Israel Correspondent
Jerusalem (UPI) Aug 18, 2006
TV footage showing Lebanese armored personnel carriers landing in Tyre and soldiers in camouflage uniforms moving south suggested that perhaps some good might yet emerge from the month long war with Israel.

It was the first time in decades that Lebanese soldiers set out to assert their government's sovereignty in the south, an area that Hezbollah has long controlled, and from Israel one would see its yellow flags, not Lebanon's, flying on watchtowers.

By late Thursday the Israelis pulled out of several areas they had occupied in recent days and two-thirds of the area between the Litani River and the international border is now out of Israeli control, a military spokeswoman said.

Israel still holds on to a security strip along the border and says it will be transferred when the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL are ready to take over.

It seems, however, that more and more compromises are being made along the way. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, that set the framework for the cease-fire and Israel's withdrawal, emphasized "the need to address urgently" the causes for the latest crisis "including the unconditional release of the abducted Israelis soldiers." Hezbollah is still holding on to those two soldiers.

The plan called for a robust international force of 15,000 men that would assist the Lebanese army. However France, for example, which had talked of sending 5,000 soldiers to the region, Thursday mentioned only 200.

The resolution says that the area between the Litani River and the border should be "free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL." Hezbollah refused to surrender its arms so the agreement with the Lebanese government reportedly provides that those arms should not be seen.

Israel did not put up a fuss over the two kidnapped reservists and appointed a former deputy head of the Shabak Security Service, Ofer Dekel, to negotiate a deal.

It seems it might accept also an agreement whereby Hezbollah's arms would be stashed away, and not turned in. Some observers noted a welcome process that began with the Syrian army's departure -- now the army's move into southern Lebanon -- that one would not have expected in early 2005. A presence of 20,000 or more Lebanese and U.N. troops in an area as small as southern Lebanon is likely to have a restraining impact, all the more so when the Lebanese army has the local legitimacy to be there.

The change in southern Lebanon "might be enough for Israel. Hezbollah will not be deployed there," estimated Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, who in June stepped down as head of the military intelligence research division. During the war he was attached to GHQ.

"Hezbollah lost their kingdom in the south," he told reporters in Jerusalem.

The fact Hezbollah activists "won't walk with rifles and won't be in positions along the border is a major change," Kuperwasser maintained.

The fighting ended Monday morning. Hezbollah's compound in southern Beirut, southern Lebanese villages and some of that country's infrastructure are in shambles but people celebrated "victory" over Israel.

In Israel the war's outcome produced gloomy feelings since the army failed to stop Hezbollah's rocket attacks and failed to secure the kidnapped soldiers release.

"The people know the army has not won the campaign," the Ha'aretz newspaper said in its Tuesday editorial.

Part of the anger turned at Chief of General Staff, Lt. Gen. Dani Halutz. The trigger was his order to his bank to sell his shares. It was given on July 12, three hours after the kidnapping. There was nothing illegal about that move and Halutz reportedly told his secretary to call his bank hours before the kidnapping occurred. However, the fact he found time to handle his portfolio irked people and some called for his resignation.

Israelis would have forgiven Halutz had the war succeeded. But the kidnapped soldiers were not even surrendered to the Lebanese government and every day rockets rained on Israeli cities -- some 250 hit Israel on Sunday alone.

Then tens of thousands of reservists were released and Israelis were suddenly exposed to tales of how poorly the war was prepared and how badly it was managed.

Soldiers complained of confusing orders, of going out on missions and being recalled on their way, of promised reinforcements that never came, of missing gear and of food and water that did not reach them. They helped themselves to food they found in Lebanese houses.

Two soldiers of the Alexandroni infantry reserve brigade Thursday told Israel Radio of a heated exchange with the brigade's commander, Col. Shlomo Cohen.

One of the soldiers asked how come they were sent to fight without food and equipment, recalled Sgt. Yair Levy. Another asked why they were ordered to enter a village in broad daylight rather than at night. They came under fire there and Cohen apparently did not know of that battle.

The soldier's battalion commander, Lt. Col. Sharon Raver, later told Israel Radio the soldiers were right in their criticism but wrong in booing the colonel.

Kuperwasser tried to paint a brighter picture. "We did inflict heavy damage on Hezbollah," he said. Most of its rocket launchers were hit. Hezbollah fired some 4,000 rockets into Israel but "we destroyed several thousand," he said. Israeli officials estimated the soldiers killed more than 500 Hezbollah guerrillas.

Through this war Israel served notice that terrorist organizations using "unacceptable measures to hit us would be targets for heavy retaliations," Kuperwasser said.

Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah had described Israel as being weak as a spider web but the rocket attacks did not break the Israelis. "We're not made of chocolate," Kuperwasser added.

In other words: Israel reasserted its deterrence.

So how come people are so frustrated, a reporter asked?

Israelis got used to expecting too much, Kuperwasser suggested. They thought Hezbollah was a small militia that could be crushed within a few minutes but in fact it was "an Iranian division" that spent six years preparing the battlefield. It was funneled state of the art weapons, including modern Russian anti-tank missiles with tandem warheads that the Syrians passed on without even opening the boxes, he said.

The army and the Shabak security agency's achievements in the Palestinian territories "spoiled the Israelis," Kuperwasser continued. Israel managed to foil 98 percent of the planned attacks, except rocket attacks, so Israelis felt secure in spite of the fighting.

Many wrongly believed "the Israeli army is a group of magicians," he continued.

Source: United Press International

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Analysis: Israel Positive On Lebanon Resolution 1701
United Nations (UPI) Aug 17, 2006
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who came to U.N. World Headquarters this week to discuss the Security Council's latest Lebanon resolution with Secretary-General Kofi Annan, came away from the meeting sounding optimistic.







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