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Analysis: Fate of Hezbollah

File photo: Hezbollah militants, March 2004. Photo courtesy of AFP.
by Sana Abdallah
UPI Correspondent
Amman, Jordan (UPI) Aug 20, 2006
Now that the Israeli war on Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah organization has come to a fragile end, the group faces another battle at home that will determine its future and standing in Lebanon. As soon as bombs and rockets fell silent after a 33-day war that left many civilian casualties and Lebanon's infrastructure in virtual tatters, and before the Lebanese army began its deployment in the south, calls began to rise in Beirut for Hezbollah's disarmament.

The issue of the Shiite group's weapons was being discussed by the Lebanese political forces in a national dialogue before the hostilities started as they sought to find a way to implement Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of Lebanon's militias, in clear reference to Hezbollah.

The group, which claimed victory against Israel in the latest war for incurring heavy losses on the Israeli ground forces and for maintaining its rockets that kept raining down on northern Israeli towns, thought it in bad taste to try to disarm fighters they say had defended the entire country.

Hezbollah, also credited for ending Israel's 22-year occupation of southern Lebanon in May 2000, reluctantly accepted Resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities and the deployment of the Lebanese army alongside an expanded version of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, in the southern frontiers with the Jewish state.

But its fierce resistance and steadfastness against the Israeli forces, raising the group's popularity and support in Lebanon and the Arab world, also raised Hezbollah's influence on the domestic political front as it succeeded in grabbing an assurance from the government that the army will not seek to disarm its fighters when the army deploys south of the Litani River so long as the fighters keep their arms "hidden" and unused.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, in his latest televised address on the group's al-Manar TV, advised some of the anti-Syrian ministers eager to disarm his fighters not to resort to "provocation and pressure when the largest army (Israel) was not able to disarm Hezbollah."

Nasrallah said while he did not have a problem with the national army deploying in the south, the fate of Hezbollah's weapons, as stipulated in Resolution 1701, would be determined by the Lebanese government after a consensus is reached when the national dialogue resumes.

But first, he stressed, the focus should be on maintaining the unity shown during the war and on rebuilding the lives of the thousands of families who lost their homes in southern Lebanon and Beirut's predominantly Shiite southern suburbs that were bombed to the ground.

Some in the March 14 alliance, a group of anti-Syrian politicians with a majority in Parliament and the Cabinet, are not hiding their fears that the Hezbollah "victory" means it will be harder to disarm the group; thus, giving a powerful edge to the group and the large Shiite minority, as well as maintaining the Iranian and Syrian influence on their country and keeping the doors open for another Israeli war.

Some have blasted Hezbollah of being a "state within a state," taking sovereign decisions regarding war and peace.

But Hezbollah's argument is that since its inception in 1982, it was the only group that did not use its weapons, supplied by Iran via Syria, against other Lebanese rivals, but for resistance against Israeli occupation or aggression, and therefore, the arms don't pose a threat to the Lebanese.

It says it supports finding a peaceful way for the Lebanese state to assume sovereignty and independence, as sought by the international community, but insists that the state and its national army must first be strong enough and up to the responsibility.

Independent Lebanese analysts say this does not seem to be the case yet.

The feebly-equipped and hardly-trained Lebanese army has virtually remained neutral throughout the latest war and in the past years. There are no guarantees that the army can defend its country against Israeli incursions and none that indicates the state can withstand Western pressure to adopt political decisions that may be more in Israel's interests than Lebanon's.

The story of Brig-Gen. Adnan Daoud, the commander of the army in the predominantly-Christian southern town of Marjayoun, comes to mind. Daoud was recently arrested after Hezbollah's al-Manar TV picked up and aired footage from Israeli television showing the Lebanese general offering and having tea with an Israeli officer in the town's army base.

Before his arrest, Daoud told reporters he took the Israeli officer on a four-hour tour of the base, after which it was reported that Israeli tanks shot their way into the same camp and the Lebanese soldiers did not fire back, but fled Marjayoun.

In Beirut, acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat said Saturday that investigations found Daoud's behavior was "acceptable" and did not constitute treason or "collaboration with the enemy" because he was coerced under weapons and asked to behave in this manner by the UNIFIL forces in the area. Nevertheless, he said, investigations will continue to take the necessary legal action.

Lebanese analysts say the example of the Daoud saga and the government's latest position on the matter will be strongly ingrained in the background throughout the debate on Hezbollah's weapons.

So will comparisons be made between the state and Hezbollah's efficiency in the reconstruction process.

The first day the ceasefire was put into effect on Aug 14, Nasrallah appeared on television to assure the people they will be swiftly compensated for losing their homes. The following day, Hezbollah dispatched representatives to assess damage and two days later, its social workers were handing out cash, in U.S. dollars, to the people. Each family that lost its home was receiving $12,000 up front to rent a house and buy furniture for one year until Hezbollah engineers rebuild their demolished homes.

"Hezbollah's mind-boggling efficiency and professionalism -- fresh out of the throes of war -- contrasts starkly with the inefficiency of the government, which has not yet responded adequately to the needs of citizens whose homes have been ruined," said Lebanon's independent Daily Star in an editorial. "It is this contrast between hyper-organization and utter disorganization that lies at the very heart of the ailment of the Lebanese state."

In other words, so long as the Lebanese state and its army remain weak and inefficient, the political forces seeking to disarm Hezbollah or weaken its influence, in order to extend the Lebanese state's control across the country, will first need to demonstrate the state's ability to protect its sovereignty and its people.

Otherwise, Hezbollah will continue to have the upper hand, remaining a strong state within a weaker one.

Source: United Press International

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Israeli PM says no talks with Syria, but possible with Lebanon
Jerusalem (AFP) Aug 21, 2006
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Monday ruled out any resumption of peace talks with Syria as long as Damascus supported "terrorism," but said negotiations were possible with Lebanon. "As long as Syria continues to support terrorism, there is no basis for negotiations," Olmert said in reference to talks that have been stalled for more than six years.







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