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Analysis: Experts Split On Nuclear Deal

Bush said Monday he would make attempts to amend U.S. non-proliferation policy to allow supply of civil nuclear energy to India. He also described India as a "responsible nuclear power country." AFP Photo 2005

New Delhi (UPI) July 20, 2005
U.S. President George W. Bush's decision to reopen the doors of civil nuclear energy sales to India may be tough to implement because of congressional opposition, Indian analysts said Wednesday.

"The process of changing U.S. non-proliferation laws is very difficult and complex," said Bharat Karnad, a nuclear expert in the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research think tank. "The U.S. Congress will not allow it to happen."

Bush said Monday he would make attempts to amend U.S. non-proliferation policy to allow supply of civil nuclear energy to India. He also described India as a "responsible nuclear power country."

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh later told U.S. Congress his country was fully conscious of the immense responsibilities that came with the possession of advanced technologies.

"If you carefully go through the joint statement (issued after the Bush-Singh talks), it says the president would attempt to amend the U.S. non-proliferation law to provide civil nuclear energy to India," Karnad said.

He pointed out that Bush had not given any commitment to India in this regard.

The joint statement issued Monday after the meeting between Bush and Singh says the United States appreciated India's commitment to prevent proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

"The president would also seek agreement from Congress to adjust U.S. laws and policies, and the United States will work with friends and allies to adjust international regimes to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation and trade with India," the statement said.

The deal has come as a shock to non-proliferation advocates in Washington. While addressing Congress, Singh said he aware of the arms control lobby, but underlined India's track record on nuclear non-proliferation.

"What India should do is that instead of making efforts to remove obstacles to get nuclear energy, it should take it easy and wait for the U.S. Congress to amend the rules because India has a bad experience in the past in this regard," said Karnad.

Previously, India had entered a contractual agreement with Washington to get nuclear energy, but faced hurdles on Capitol Hill.

"I do not know why the government has gone through this," said Karnad.

Singh's advisers, however, hope that the repeated applause from U.s. lawmakers during the prime minister's address Tuesday is in indication U.S. nuclear laws would be amended.

Nuclear and strategic analyst Rahul Bedi said, however, the deal would fall flat.

"They will say what will happen if Russia says it wants to give nuclear energy to Iran," Bedi argued.

In case the deal does get through Congress, Bedi said getting energy would be expensive because the suppliers' group would create trouble.

"They (nuclear energy suppliers' group) have their own clients and they charge very high prices," Bedi said. "It (Bush's announcement) is a post-dated check given to India by the U.S. which is not going to be cashed."

China is a member of the nuclear suppliers' group and its attitude toward India's civil nuclear program needs to be seen. Beijing had condemned India's nuclear tests in 1998.

Under the deal with Washington, India agreed to bifurcate its civilian and nuclear facilities and programs in a phased manner and to place its civilian nuclear facilities under the scanner of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Nuclear scientists in India are opposed to this decision saying it would hamper ongoing research on a fast-breeder reactor.

"It compromises India's long-term energy security," The Hindu newspaper quoted unidentified scientists in the Department of Atomic Energy as saying.

"I shudder to think how we could have conceded to such a thing placing our civilian nuclear facilities under IAEA," said A.N. Prasad, former director of Bhabha Atomic Research Center.

Experts say despite apprehensions, India went ahead with the U.S. deal because New Delhi is trying to separate itself from arch rival Pakistan, which also has nuclear weapons. Pakistan conducted nuclear tests after India in May 1998.

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India Calls For Action Against Nuclear Proliferators
New Delhi (AFP) Oct 24, 2005
India Monday urged the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to take action against illegal proliferators of nuclear weapons technology such as Pakistan's disgraced scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.







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