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Trump delivers hard line on new China tariffs threat
By Sebastian Smith
Washington (AFP) June 10, 2019

China's exports beat forecast to rise as trade war heats up
Beijing (AFP) June 10, 2019 - China's exports beat gloomy forecasts to rebound in May though imports sank more than expected, official data showed Monday, as concerns lingered about the impact of its ongoing trade war with the United States.

The spat between the world's top two economies escalated last month, with President Donald Trump increasing tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.

But Chinese exports to the world bounced back to rise 1.1 percent last month after falling 2.7 percent in April, according to customs data. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast a 3.9 percent drop.

Imports, however, plummeted 8.5 percent after rising 4.0 percent in April.

The trade surplus surged to $41.7 billion in May compared with $13.8 billion the previous month. The politically sensitive surplus with the United States was $26.9 billion, up from $21 billion in April.

Trade talks between Beijing and Washington have stalled while the two countries have threatened to slap more sanctions on each other.

Trump has blacklisted Chinese telecom giant Huawei and warned that he could impose tariffs on nearly all remaining products from China, worth more than $300 billion.

Beijing responded to Trump's latest tariff hike by increasing levies on $60 billion of US products on June 1.

China is also preparing its own blacklist of "unreliable" companies and has suggested that it could halt exports of rare earth minerals -- key to the production of many high-tech goods -- to the United States.

Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Japan at the end of the month.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said at a G20 meeting of finance ministers Saturday that any potential deal with China will wait until the two presidents meet later this month, but Washington was ready to impose new tariffs if talks fail.

- Tumble expected -

Analysts said despite the rebound in exports, China's trade outlook is likely to suffer because of the turbulence ahead.

"While exports rose in May, weaker global demand and the escalating trade war suggest that they will start to fall again before long," Marcel Thieliant, senior economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

Others attributed the bounce in May to exports being scheduled so they are shipped ahead of when tariffs kick in, pointing to a likely drop later in the year.

"The better-than-expected exports in May, which could have been helped by a depreciation in... (China's currency) and front-loading of shipments amid fears of higher US tariffs, do not change our overall cautious view on China's export look for 2019," Betty Wang, Senior China Economist at ANZ Research, said in a note.

The export turbulence ahead could prompt Beijing to intervene and stimulate the economy.

The growth of China's exports should "tumble in Q3, when we expect the threatened tariffs to be imposed," Nomura International said in a note.

"Therefore, we believe Beijing is to step up its stimulus measures to stabilise financial markets and growth."

President Donald Trump warned Monday he will slap huge new tariffs on China if his counterpart Xi Jinping doesn't show up for a planned face-to-face meeting later this month and insisted the Chinese economy will never overtake the United States.

Trump delivered his hardline message ahead of the G20 summit on June 28-29 in Osaka, Japan, which could mark a turning point in the trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies.

Asked if a failure by Xi to come to the summit would lead to tariffs kicking in on a further $300 billion in Chinese imports, Trump told CNBC television: "Yes it would."

Trump said the meeting was "scheduled" and that he expects Xi to attend.

"I would be surprised if he didn't go," Trump said. "I think he's going, I haven't heard that he's not."

However, as US-Chinese tensions mount, a spokesman for Xi's government said last month that he had "no information at present" on Trump-Xi talks.

Trump has been trying to strongarm China into fundamental change on trade policies that the president argues have for decades put the United States at an unfair disadvantage.

The two sides seemed to be close to striking a bargain until talks stalled last month. Washington says that Beijing walked away at the last minute, while the Chinese side has signaled it is prepared for a long fight against unreasonable demands.

Trump has already imposed 25 percent duties on $200 billion of Chinese imports. China has responded with punitive tariffs on $60 billion in US goods.

Last month he threatened to slap tariffs on a further $300 billion of goods -- virtually everything American companies import from China -- if no breakthrough is achieved.

The US Trade Representative office has launched the process to impose the huge new duties, with a hearing scheduled for June 17 -- but Trump has said he has yet to decide whether he will ultimately impose the levies.

- 'They'll never catch us' -

Trump has made tariffs a pillar of his foreign policy, arguing that US economic power puts him in a win-win situation when he threatens rivals like China and even close allies, such as Canada, the European Union and Mexico.

The United States says that China cheats in bilateral trade by forcing US importers to give up intellectual property, subsidizing its own companies, and running a huge trade surplus with Washington.

Trump told CNBC that by ratcheting up tariffs, he can ultimately force manufacturers to leave China.

"Those companies are going to move into other locations and there won't be a tariff," he said.

In a game of tit-for-tat, Trump added, China will lose simply because they have far fewer US imports they can target. "We have the big, big advantage," he said.

"China's going to make a deal because they're going to have to make a deal."

Trump's tariff rattling has spooked global markets and also run into pushback from many in Congress.

But in his lengthy CNBC interview, Trump said he is doing what previous presidents avoided because they "either didn't understand it or they were bored by it or they weren't smart enough."

His overall aim, the Republican said, is to ensure that China never overtakes the United States as the world's top economy.

"Had a Democrat gotten in..., China would have caught us," he said. Now "they'll never catch us."

Trump says Xi meeting at G20 'scheduled'
Washington (AFP) June 10, 2019 - President Donald Trump on Monday said he still expects to talk with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the upcoming G20 summit, warning he will impose new tariffs if there is no meeting.

"Yes it would," Trump told CNBC television when asked if a failure by Xi to come to the summit later this month in Japan would lead to the huge new tariffs kicking in.

But Trump said the meeting was "scheduled" and "I think he will go."

"I would be surprised if he didn't go," Trump added. "I think he's going, I havent heard that he's not. We're expected to meet."

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, meanwhile, said last month that he had "no information at present" on Trump-Xi talks.

Trump has been trying to strongarm China into a major change on trade policies that the president argues have for decades put the United States at an unfair disadvantage.

The two biggest economies in the world seemed to be close to striking a bargain until talks stalled last month. Washington says that Beijing walked away at the last minute, while the Chinese side has signalled it is increasingly prepared for a long fight.

Trump has already imposed 25 percent duties on $200 billion of Chinese imports. China has responded with punitive tariffs on $60 billion in US goods.

Trump says he is ready to slap tariffs on a further $300 billion in Chinese imports if no breakthrough is achieved.

The G20 summit will take place in Osaka on June 28-29.


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TRADE WARS
China warns its citizens of police harassment, crime in US
Beijing (AFP) June 4, 2019
China on Tuesday issued a pair of travel alerts to its citizens going to the United States, warning them about police harassment and crime as tensions soar between the global powers. The world's two largest economies have been locked in a protracted trade war, and any major drop in Chinese tourism to the United States could cost billions to the US economy. While it did not threaten to curb tours to the United States, China has used tourism as a weapon during previous diplomatic rows with South K ... read more

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