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Oil ministers warn against speculation

by Staff Writers
Geneva (AFP) March 22, 2010
Leading OPEC ministers on Monday warned against financial speculation on oil markets fuelled by the uncertain economic recovery and sudden booming demand in emerging economies.

The president of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), ministers from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates said they were striving for stable and optimum prices in the wake of the volatility triggered by the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

OPEC president and Ecuadoran resources minister Germanico Pinto told a UN conference in Geneva that although the oil market had moved to "more realistic and stable oil price," pressures for "extreme volatility" remained.

"Increased speculative activity has led to acute and excessive price fluctuations and the market has been driven by factors totally unrelated to supply and demand," said Pinto.

"It is essential that the price is justified by market fundamentals," he added.

Pinto underlined that current investments would satisfy demand for OPEC crude and "continue to provide a comfortable cushion of spare capacity."

"Today current spare capacity in member countries already exceeds six million barrels a day," he said.

Oil prices plunged from record highs close to 150 dollars a barrel in July 2008 to below 40 dollars within months with the onset of the financial crisis, stifling long delayed investment in oil production, before they climbed again.

Since last June prices have ranged around 70 to 80 dollars a barrel, "a level which is acceptable to producers, which at the same time does not dampen the prospects for economic recovery," said United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Mohamed bin Dhaen al-Hamli.

Several participants at the UN Global Commodities Forum pointed to the impact of hedge fund positions on oil futures.

Hamli said pressure on prices was "a response to fears that in the future oil producers will struggle to meet demand."

"We ask for greater regulatory oversight on markets on which we have no control but on which we all depend," he added, highlighting the influence of "non commercial" speculators.

Qatar Minister of State for Energy Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada said that speculators had a "strong influence" on rollercoaster oil prices, helped by the uncertain economic climate and lack of transparency on supplies and demand.

"This can result in speculators creating a momentum for price movements which clouds market signals, leading to a long term impact on future supply," he added.

International Energy Agency Deputy Executive Director Richard Jones questioned the impact of oil speculation.

He said the fundamentals of supply and demand tend to predominate over time "suggesting a degree of price stability at least for 2010."

But Jones cautioned that the lack of clear outlook on demand from emerging giants China and India added to uncertainty, alongside question marks on investment, credit availability, refinery bottlenecks, energy and climate policy.

"We need to have greater transparency on the behaviour of those emerging markets," he said.

The IEA reported ten days ago that emerging markets were driving unexpectedly strong growth of world oil demand this year with China accounting for almost a third of the increase.

Uncertainty about future demand trends could act as a trigger for more volatile prices by "diminishing the margin of OPEC spare capacity," Jones cautioned.

Oil prices dipped to near 80 dollars a barrel in Asian trade Monday, extending last week's losses caused by gains in the US dollar.



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