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Nigeria's oil war drags on

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by Staff Writers
Abuja, Nigeria (UPI) Aug 26, 2009
Nigeria's oil war, which has slashed the West African power's output by 20 percent since 2006, looks like dragging on after insurgents in the oil-rich Niger Delta declared they will resume their attacks when a 60-day cease-fire expires Sept. 15.

At least one leader of the loose coalition of rebel groups known as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta has accepted a government amnesty after President Umaru Yar'Adua provided assurances that the grievances of the region's impoverished people would be addressed.

Some 500 fighters headed by Ebikabowei Ben, or "General Boyloaf," the commander of rebel forces in Bayelsa state, surrendered at a high-profile public ceremony Saturday and handed over more than 500 weapons.

But that was the only significant surrender, and the MEND leadership, which controls thousands of fighters across the delta region, declared Saturday that it rejected the unconditional amnesty plan announced June 25 as a "charade." The amnesty expires Oct. 4.

There were reports at the time that the amnesty was proclaimed under pressure from foreign governments to end the delta crisis that has caused havoc with Africa's biggest oil and gas industry and reportedly driven up oil prices. But the government denied that.

MEND also suspended the cease-fire it declared in July to allow for peace talks and pronounced negotiations with the federal government over.

If the rebels stick to their guns, it will likely mean the government will launch a new military offensive when the amnesty runs out.

The federal government has shown little political will to move decisively against the rebels since they launched their campaign of attacks on the oil industry five years ago.

Yar'Adua, who came to power two years ago, did order an offensive by the Joint Task Force in the Niger Delta in May, suggesting a newfound determination to resolve the problem.

Air and naval forces bombarded areas where MEND was supposedly based, but little seemed to be achieved.

MEND responded by declaring "all-out war" on the task force and hit several foreign companies including Anglo-Dutch Shell, ENI of Italy and Chevron of the United States. The delta contains 90 percent of Nigeria's oil reserves.

Jane's Intelligence Weekly, published in London, commented in late June: "Even should a truce be agreed, these have previously been short-lived and there appears to be little prospect for a lasting resolution of the conflict in the near future."

One key element seems to be that the amnesty offer doesn't address any of MEND's main demands: greater distribution of Nigeria's oil wealth, which has never percolated down to the impoverished tribes of the delta; an economic development program to provide jobs and skills; and an end to rampant government corruption.

Even the government's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission estimates that Nigeria's rulers, many of them military men, have stolen in excess of $400 billion in oil revenues since independence from Britain in 1960. That's equal to all foreign aid given to Africa in that period.

Two-thirds of Nigeria's 135 million people live below the poverty line, with most tribespeople in the delta living on less than $2 a day.

The culture of corruption was underscored earlier this month when the government had to bail out five major banks to the tune of $2.6 billion to save the banking system from collapse.

The Financial Times described the crisis as the result of "an epidemic of reckless lending which threatened to wreck a sector once hailed as a model of African financial sector reform."

The central bank government dismissed the managements of the errant banks and issued wanted notices for fraud against several bankers who fled the country.

The issue of reform is also a key factor in the oil crisis. Attempts to reform the battered oil industry have run into stiff resistance from the influential governors of the volatile oil-producing region.

They joined oil companies in opposing a bill before Parliament that seeks to provide more revenue for the delta region.

These officials want the federal state to retain ownership of the oil, rather than switch to a U.S.-style system under which the crude belongs to the states where it is located.

Nigeria currently supplies an estimated 11 percent of U.S. oil imports, but that's set to rise to 20 percent to 25 percent by 2020.

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