President Donald Trump has repeatedly boasted that the tariffs he has imposed on trading partners are a financial windfall for the US treasury, but research shows it is Americans that bear the brunt of the impact.

Trump plans to ratchet up tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent on Friday, and said the US will be fine without a trade deal since it is raking in the proceed from the tariffs.

But that announcement worries businesses and farmers, and has shaken up investors worldwide.

"Tariffs are taxes paid by American businesses and consumers, not by China," said David French, senior vice president of the National Retail Federation.

"A sudden tariff increase with less than a week's notice would severely disrupt US businesses, especially small companies that have limited resources to mitigate the impact," French said.

According to Trump the duties have brought in an additional $100 billion a year paid by China and other countries, but in fact the taxes are paid by the importers, and ultimately passed on at least partially to consumers.

US and Chinese trade officials are set to hold crucial negotiations Thursday and Friday in Washington, under the threat of the new tariffs.

And while industry and retailers support the Trump administration's desire to change China's behavior and open access to the massive market, they worry the tactics will begin to cut into their sales as consumers feel the pinch.

"We want President Trump to successfully reach a deal with China that puts a check on anti-competitive behavior," said Hun Quach, vice president of the Retail Industry Leaders Association.

But he said the middle class will end up paying more for everyday consumer goods.

- Jobs threatened, expenses up -

The Trade Partnership, a private research firm, calculated that increasing existing duties to 25 percent will raise annual expenses for a family of four by $767 and threaten nearly one million jobs

Trade with China supports seven million jobs in the United States, out of 39 million US jobs related to international trade.

The conflict between the economic powers has engulfed $360 billion in two-way trade. Trump began the tariff war last year because of complaints over unfair Chinese trade practices.

Customs duties affect many intermediate products such as steel, leather, rubber and plastics, as well as finished products from household appliances, to televisions and furniture.

A recent study by the New York Federal Reserve Bank shows that taxes imposed since March 2018 on steel and aluminum, and in July on Chinese goods, boosted the consumer price index by 0.3 percentage points last year.

Research released last month by the University of Chicago and the New York Fed estimated that tariffs imposed on imported washing machines cost American consumers an additional $1.5 billion a year, raising the price of a washing machine by $86 and a dryer by $92.

"We want to see meaningful changes in China's trade practices, but it makes no sense to punish Americans as a negotiating tactic," French of the NRF complained in a statement.

"If the administration wants to put more pressure on China, it should form a multinational coalition with our allies who share our concerns."

On Wednesday, official data from China showed a drop in exports in April, but Beijing's surplus with the United States remained stable despite the tariffs.

China has retaliated with steep tariffs on US agricultural imports, especially soy beans, although the Trump administration paid $12 billion in compensation to help hurting US farmers.

Several Republican politicians from states that voted for Trump said farmers were "losing patience," in the words of Iowa Senator Joni Ernst.

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US-China trade dilemma: how to hold Beijing's feet to the fire
Washington (AFP) May 5, 2019
US and Chinese officials say a historic deal ending their ongoing trade war could be imminent, but a key question is how can Washington be sure Beijing will live up to its end of the bargain? With up to 100 Chinese officials reportedly expected next week in Washington, with the possibility of unveiling a grand agreement after months of tensions, that question is hanging over the talks. Beijing may make eye-popping offers to buy American energy and agriculture exports as a means of cutting the so ... read more