Global quadrupling of cooling appliances to 14 billion by 2050

Soaring global need for cooling by 2050 could see world energy consumption for cooling increase five times as the number of cooling appliances quadruples to 14 billion - according to a new report by the University of Birmingham, UK.

This new report sets out to provide, for the first time, an indication of the scale of the energy implications of 'Cooling for All'.

Effective cooling is essential to preserve food and medicine. It underpins industry and economic growth, is key to sustainable urbanisation as well as providing a ladder out of rural poverty. With significant areas of the world projected to experience temperature rises that place them beyond those which humans can survive, cooling will increasingly make much of the world bearable - or even safe - to live in. With populations increasing, expanding urbanisation and climate change impacts leading to more frequent heatwaves and temperature rises, the demand for more cooling will increase in the decades ahead.

There are currently 3.6 billion cooling appliances around the world today and the University of Birmingham report authors forecast that the 14 billion devices needed by 2050 will consume five times the amount of energy currently predicted for cooling usage.

The report - A Cool World - Defining the Energy Conundrum of 'Cooling for All' - states that, by 2050, if we are to meet our Paris Climate targets to hold temperature increases to 2'C, total energy consumption for cooling must be limited to 6,300 TWh. Without action beyond current technology capabilities and efficiency gains, cooling could account for 19,600 TWh of energy consumption per year, against a current annual usage of 3,600 TWh. Even with new technologies coming on board, the annual energy requirement will be 15,500 TWh.

The report states that, along with aiming to reduce overall demand, if we are to meet our climate goals a whole new system approach to cooling is needed, recognising available free and waste cold and heat resources and incorporating new technologies, data connectivity, thermal energy storage to meet demand in the most efficient way.

Professor Toby Peters, 'A Cool World' report author from the University of Birmingham's Energy Institute, said: "Current projections do not consider a 'Cooling for All' scenario and it will be impossible to meet the UN's sustainable development goals as well as the Paris climate change targets. If we are to meet either of these, relying on technology efficiency and greening electricity won't be sufficient.

"The challenge now is how to start with a system-led approach, better harnessing a portfolio of energy resources and adopting novel technologies. In order to achieve this, we need to start by asking ourselves a new question - no longer 'how much electricity do we need to generate?' but rather 'what is the service we require, and how can we provide it in the least damaging way."

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