Yemen, which lies at the southern tip of the Arabian peninsula, is at the center of the gathering storm in the region. So is Somalia, Yemen's neighbor on the Red Sea's western shore.

Yemen's longtime president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, a U.S. ally, is grappling with a resurgence of al-Qaida violence that threatens to re-ignite the jihadist campaign in neighboring Saudi Arabia.

Saleh's Sunni Muslim regime in Sanaa is also in danger from a 5-year-old revolt by Shiite tribesmen in the north that he seems unable to crush. Sanaa claims Iran is supporting its rebellious coreligionists. Socialists in South Yemen are increasingly threatening the 1990 union of north and south. They mounted an ill-fated secessionist war against the conservative north in 1994 and appear to be getting ready for another fight.

Earlier this month Saleh met with King Abdallah of Saudi Arabia to coordinate counter-terrorism policies and to seek Riyadh's help to cut the flow of funds to the separatists from Yemenis living in the kingdom.

Riyadh fears that if Yemen's crisis worsens, possibly leading to the collapse of the state, the country could be used as a springboard to revive the campaign of violence al-Qaida waged in the kingdom in 2003-06. Riyadh has reported an uptick in al-Qaida activity there in recent months as jihadist forces in Yemen gained strength.

In Somalia, jihadists are posing their most serious challenge yet to the fragile Western-backed transitional government in Mogadishu. Somalia has been ravaged by clan warfare since 1990, and there are deepening concerns that the nation could fall into jihadist hands.

On June 12 The New York Times quoted U.S. officials as saying that al-Qaida operatives are moving from Pakistan to Somalia and Yemen in what Washington fears is a systematic redeployment to exploit the chaos in the Red Sea states.

"I'm very worried about growing safe havens in both Somalia and Yemen, specifically because we have seen al-Qaida leadership, some leaders, start to flow to Yemen," said U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.

This could have major strategic implications. Somalia and Yemen straddle the choke point Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a key oil supply route between the Gulf and the West. The scourge of Somali pirates preying on shipping in the Gulf of Aden underlines the growing concerns for the region.

"Yemen is strategically important, not only for Saudi Arabia, but for the world, because it is the only country on the Arabian peninsula from which oil can reach the open seas without passing through a narrow strait -- either the Strait Hormuz or the Suez Canal," said Mai Yamani, a Saudi analyst who is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. "To endanger this passage is to endanger the world economy's energy lifeline."

The Red Sea has also become a focal point in the struggle between Iran and Israel, which has long had links with largely Christian Ethiopia. In January and February, Israeli strike aircraft and long-range unmanned drones reportedly attacked truck convoys, and possibly at least one ship in the Red Sea, alleged to be carrying Iranian arms shipments destined for Hamas in the Gaza Strip via Sudan and Egypt.

Iran has been quietly expanding its influence in the region for some time, particularly with Somalia and Eritrea, which fought a border war with Ethiopia, a U.S. ally and the main military power in the Horn of Africa, in 1998-2000. Sources in the region said Tehran signed an agreement with Eritrea in 2008 that will allow Iranian Revolutionary Guard units to set up bases near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

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