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TRADE WARS
Copper hammers above $6,000 on Trump, China
By Roland JACKSON
London (AFP) Nov 11, 2016


EU nears tougher rules on China dumping
Brussels (AFP) Nov 11, 2016 - European Union trade ministers said Friday they must not be "naive" in the face of alleged China price dumping, as they tried to agree tougher measures to fight unfairly low prices.

China is the EU's second-largest trade partner but the two blocs have had a series of disputes over cheap Chinese exports that Europeans say are unfairly flooding their market.

"Europe cannot be naive and must protect its interests especially when it comes to dumping," said Peter Ziga, trade minister from Slovakia, which holds the EU's six-month rotating presidency.

However, differences remained at a meeting of the 28 ministers in Brussels, with free-trade purists such as Britain, Sweden and the Netherlands fearing a lurch towards protectionism and angering China.

"There is still not the necessary majority, but we are sure that we can have a decision," said French Trade Minister Matthias Fekl.

"It is indispensable," he added.

The most controversial idea -- on the table since 2013 -- is to soften the "lesser duty rule" by which tariffs are imposed systematically at the lowest possible level.

Changing this rule would allow the EU to impose higher tariffs than now.

Steelmakers are especially keen for the changes after being battered by a collapse in prices due to China-led oversupply and a wave of cheap imports.

China makes more than half the world's steel and is accused of massive dumping as its own market slows sharply.

About 15,000 steelworkers protested in Brussels on Wednesday demanding the EU pass the tougher rules.

But some countries are worried that tougher rules will make imports too expensive for industry.

"The Swedes are really against it. Volvo needs 10,000 parts to build an auto," an EU diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

These extra defences are seen as key with China in December widely expected to receive the official World Trade Organization designation of Market Economy Status (MES).

This new standing means that China's trade partners will no longer be allowed to use alternative methods to measure potential price dumping, handing much more power to Beijing in trade fights.

To counter this, the European Commission's proposal introduces several criteria to assess trade partners, such as state policies and influence, the widespread presence of state-owned companies and the independence of the financial sector.

Beijing on Thursday said the EU's tougher proposals were wrong, leaving China as a "surrogate country" in the eyes of the WTO.

"These new measures have no basis in World Trade Organization rules," said China's commerce ministry spokesman Shen Danyang, adding that the EU was illegally stripping China of its WTO rights.

Base metal prices soared this week, with copper forging above $6,000 per tonne as Donald Trump's election victory sparked hopes of booming demand to meet the president-elect's pledge on infrastructure spending.

Industrial metals also scored multi-year and multi-month peaks on hopes of resurgent demand from top global consumer China.

Copper, used in plumbing, heating, electrical and telecommunications wiring, peaked Friday at $6,025.50 -- the highest price for almost one and a half years.

Republican Trump's shock defeat of Democrat Hillary Clinton in Tuesday's US presidential election gave markets a jolt as the result was announced early Wednesday.

"Although the prices of industrial commodities initially plunged ... on the news of Donald Trump's victory, sentiment reversed very quickly as the president-elect Trump made a conciliatory acceptance speech," said Capital Economics analyst Caroline Bain.

"Indeed, the prices of a number of metals, notably copper, subsequently rose on hopes of fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending."

Trump's announced economic policies have included spending big on infrastructure projects, tax cuts, and protectionist moves on trade.

- China plays bigger role? -

However, other analysts argued that China was playing a bigger role in the trajectory of base metal prices.

"The assumption that Trump will somehow boost demand for industrial metals sounds quite strange," Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada told AFP.

"After all, base metals -- copper in particular -- had been rallying days before the US elections.

"Copper's rally must therefore be due to hopes that the Chinese demand is recovering or expectations of a tighter market, which appears more likely in my view."

Liberum analyst Richard Knights agreed with the diagnosis.

"Putting (Trump's infrastructure plans) in terms of copper consumption is tough, but even at the most bullish end of consumption growth estimates, it does not really move the needle compared to China," he noted.

Prices began Monday in rude health on predictions of bullish demand at LME Week, an industry event hosted last week by the London Metal Exchange.

"There was a cautiously upbeat tone to LME Week this year, which has been reflected in base metal prices rallying strongly," wrote UniCredit analysts.

"The main takeaways ... were perhaps 1) the realisation that China appears to be turning a corner and 2) the acceptance that the bear market for metals that started in 2011 is over."

Elsewhere, base metal lead jumped to $2,198 per tonne, its best level for more than one year.

Zinc surged to a five-year high at $2,580, while nickel hit a 16-month peak at $22,000.

Tin hit $22,000 on Monday, a pinnacle last scaled 15 months ago.

For its part, gold leapt to a one-month high on Wednesday as investors flocked to the safe-haven metal on uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency.

However, the precious metal then sank on the growing prospect of rising US interest rates, hitting a five-month low on Friday.

Heading into the weekend, copper dived on Friday as investors took a breather.

"Copper unwound gains ... to turn lower on the day, but still had its best week ever," noted CMC Markets analyst Jasper Lawler.

- Base metals over the week -

By Friday on the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months stood at $5,912.50 a tonne from $4,982 a week earlier.

Three-month aluminium rose to $1,778.50 a tonne from $1,724.

Three-month lead gained to $2,162.50 a tonne from $2,093.

Three-month tin advanced to $21,555 a tonne from $21,185.

Three-month nickel increased to $11,775 a tonne from $10,495.

Three-month zinc climbed to $2,537.50 a tonne from $2,460.


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