Australian PM's Asia tour seen as 'balancing act' Sydney (AFP) April 19, 2011 Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's upcoming Asia tour will be a tough balancing act in which she must weigh her ardent support for the US against the region's rising influence, analysts say. Gillard embarks Wednesday on a week-long visit to countries critical to Australia's prosperity and security -- key trading partners Japan, South Korea and China -- as competitive tensions between Washington and Beijing linger. "It is a very interesting balancing act she's got to strike," foreign policy expert Professor Hugh White said of Gillard's first north Asia tour, which comes as Japan battles a nuclear crisis and China cracks down on dissidents. White said Gillard had "gone out of her way to express strong support for the United States and its role in Asia" as tensions between the US and China grew over the value of the yuan and the flood of Chinese goods to America. "There is a question as to whether the Chinese won't press her on whether, by leaning so far forward towards the US she's not in effect leaning away from China," he said. Gillard is expected to focus on business during the April 25-27 visit to Australia's largest trading partner -- worth some US$50.6 billion annually -- where she will meet President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. While she is likely to raise the current dissident crackdown, White said the Chinese had come to expect "what one might call routine protestations on human rights" from western leaders. "The core dynamic of the relationship is trade, and that's what makes China so central to Australia's international outlook at the moment," added White, who heads the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University in Canberra. But he said if Gillard, who has previously admitted foreign affairs are not her "passion", felt she could just "turn up", she could be mistaken. "It does boil down to the simple fact that both the United States and China are both extremely important countries to Australia -- so is Japan," White told AFP. "The US and Japan on the one side have one view of Asia's strategic future and China has a different view and Gillard has to navigate her way between them." But Professor Andrew O'Neil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute at Queensland's Griffith University, said the Chinese were aware of Australia's long-standing military alliance with the US and its importance to Canberra. "I think they are much more focused on shoring Australia up as one of the key trading partners for China, but also a growing investment market as well for Chinese mining companies," he said. "I think the Chinese are very comfortable in keeping the relationship transactional: trade, investment, cooperation on energy security, the sorts of big picture issues that concern China." Former diplomat and intelligence analyst Rory Medcalf, now with Sydney-based think-tank the Lowy Institute, said the trip was a "big foreign policy step" for Gillard. In Japan, she is expected to visit areas hit by the 9.0-magnitude quake and following tsunami which swept thousands to their deaths and knocked out an atomic power plant, sparking a nuclear crisis. The April 20-23 visit will include an audience with Emperor Akihito and talks with Prime Minister Naoto Kan during which Gillard will express support for Japan's recovery. In Seoul, Gillard will commemorate one of Australia's key military engagements of the Korean War, and meet President Lee Myung-Bak and Prime Minister Kim Kwang-sik from April 23-25. Japan and South Korea are Australia's second and fourth largest trading partners, so discussions on this and strategic links will be on the agenda. But overarching all will be nervousness about China, said Medcalf, adding that Gillard had an opportunity to "send some signals" on how she was going to deal with the Asian powerhouse. It will equally be an opportunity for Asia to better get to know the woman who took power last June -- particularly as a doll representing Gillard at last year's G20 in Seoul portrayed her in traditional Austrian dress. "She really does have to register as a stateswoman and this is an opportunity to do this," Medcalf said.
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