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Asian demand likely to keep oil prices up

Iran builds petrol stock to offset possible sanctions
Tehran (AFP) April 27, 2010 - Iran has increased its stockpile of petrol by over one billion litres (220 million gallons) and plans to boost domestic production to offset possible fuel sanctions, an oil official said on Tuesday. "At the moment the volume of Iran's strategic petrol supplies has increased by over a billion litres," Nooreddin Shahnazi-Zadeh, the head of National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company told Mehr news agency without specifying the total stockpile. Shahnazi-Zadeh dismissed the threat of sanctions, saying "it is impossible to impose such limitations in the current situation."

Oil-rich Iran, OPEC's second largest oil exporter, is dependent on petrol imports to meet over one third of its domestic consumption, which is about 65 million litres a day, due to shortage of refining capacity. Shahnazi-Zadeh said the output of Iranian refineries was about 44.6 million litres a day which would increase to 45.6 in the current Iranian year to March 2011. Western countries led by Washington have stepped up global efforts to secure a fourth round of UN sanctions against Iran for pursuing its sensitive uranium enrichment programme. Among measures mentioned by top Western officials are restrictions on fuel to the Islamic republic, which announced last November it would launch an emergency petrol production plan in a bid to dodge such punitive measures.
by Staff Writers
London (UPI) Apr 27, 2010
Industrial oil-consuming countries should expect to keep paying higher prices for crude because their slow recovery and low demand is being offset by rising demand in Asia, the London Center for Global Energy Studies said Tuesday.

The think tank said recent spikes in oil prices showed that neither the weakness in Western countries' recovery nor forecasts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had restrained prices.

Crude oil prices remained close to $83 per barrel in overnight trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as concerns over debt in Greece also played a part in buyer reaction. Crude oil prices for June delivery also stayed at more than $83 per barrel.

"The market appears to be ignoring continued weakness in OECD oil demand and the big increases in supply from non-OPEC producers and OPEC NGLs," said the center, citing statistics from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, which groups together Western industrial countries, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

Natural gas liquids likewise hadn't dampened the market.

The bullish sentiment was also helped by comments that OPEC wouldn't intervene to increase production and restrain the crude oil price unless it topped the $100 per barrel mark.

The rising oil price has dismayed economic strategists but also prompted criticism that OPEC's own appraisal of a weakening market before the onset of summer was little more than what CGES described as a "myth."

Non-OPEC crude oil production, virtually stagnant since the beginning of 2004, is rising once again, as the effect of the industry's belated response to higher oil prices is felt, said the center. "Aggregate non-OPEC crude oil production is up (800,000) barrels per day year on year" and may record further growth in the months ahead, said CGES.

The center's report confirmed other analyses that rising demand in Asia and global growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund would continue to influence the oil market, no matter how the Western economies coped with their fragile recovery programs.

The IMF recently raised its forecast of real growth in global gross domestic product this year from 3.9 percent to 4.2 percent, led by China and India. China's apparent oil demand in the first quarter of this year was more than 1.3 million barrels a day up on the same period in 2009 -- an 18 percent increase.

"The oil market appears to have focused on what is happening in Asia, ignoring the warnings about the developed world," CGES said. "This should come as little surprise, since the industrialized countries of North America and Europe are adding almost nothing to global oil demand growth."

The center's analysts said two factors that could influence the prices in the coming months would be the impact of high gasoline prices on U.S. summer demand and the levels of non-OPEC oil supply during the Northern Hemisphere summer months.



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