"We are facing the downfall of the old Arab order and the birth of a new one, a process that could take months or years," political science professor Khattar Abu Diab, of the University of Paris XI, told AFP.

"But one thing is sure, this democratic tsunami will not stop," he added.

"The Arab youths who took to the streets have forced Western countries to realise that the regimes they backed are not eternal and that they must listen to the people and not focus only on their own economic interests."

The first wake-up call for the West came with Tunisia's so-called "Jasmine Revolution" that toppled strongman Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

The next jolt came with the spectacular downfall of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak that inspired the popular uprising against Libya's Moamer Kadhafi and demonstrations in other Arab countries, including Yemen, Bahrain and Jordan.

The revolts not only caught off guard the region's many autocratic rulers but upended the long-standing policies of Western countries which, fearing an Islamist tide, for decades backed regimes that openly flouted basic human rights and democratic principles.

"Arab regimes had convinced the West that the only other alternative if they were toppled was Islamist extremism, but they were proven wrong," said Paul Salem, head of the Beirut-based Middle East Carnegie Centre.

"The Islamists have been present during the revolutions sweeping the region but they are well aware that these revolts and the slogans they carry are not theirs to claim," he added.

"The people are opting for other slogans -- freedom, modernity, diversity and democracy."

Analysts also criticised the lack of foresight among Western countries which failed to read the early warning signs of simmering discontent in Arab societies.

"Western countries were taken by surprise... because they were only in contact with the political leadership," said French political analyst Agnes Levallois, author of "Moyen Orient, mode d'emploi" (A User's Guide to the Middle East).

"They were blindsided by two themes: the fight against fundamentalism and illegal immigration," she added. "They must now begin a dialogue with new interlocutors... to build faith and a real partnership with the youths behind the revolts."

But the major question today is who will emerge as the voice of the new Middle East once the dust settles.

Although some analysts expressed concern that Islamist movements could gain ground in future elections, others said the democratic wind of change would sweep away extremism.

"The revolts will stem the rise of Islamism... which will have a share in upcoming elections but not a significant one," predicted Salem.

The West, especially the United States, will also be closely watching how emerging democracies in the Middle East deal with Israel and Western oil interests in the region, the analysts said.

Diab said Washington and its Western allies are left with no choice but to adopt a more balanced approach when dealing with the region, especially as concerns the Arab-Israeli conflict.

"All these uprisings and revolutions are not spurred by ideology," he said. "But their steadfastness lies in the creation of a new regional equation that respects justice and equality, including as concerns the creation of a viable Palestinian state.

"By doing so, the West would defuse the most explosive issue in the Middle East."

earlier related report
Arab unrest and the 'End of the Oil Age'
Beirut, Lebanon (UPI) Mar 4, 2011 -The shock waves from the political upheaval engulfing Arab oil producers are causing immense changes that could shrink the global oil economy, says U.S. energy expert Michael T. Klare.

"Whatever the outcome of the protests, uprisings and rebellions now sweeping the Middle East, one thing is guaranteed: the world of oil will be permanently transformed," Klare wrote in a commentary run by the TomDispatch.com Web site Friday.

"Consider everything that's now happening as just the first tremor of an oilquake that will shake our world to its core."

Klare, author of "Blood and Oil" and "Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet," declared that the era of Middle Eastern oil fueling expanding Western economies after World War II is coming to an end.

"That old oil order is dying," he wrote, "and with its demise we will see the end of cheap and readily accessible petroleum -- forever."

The sharp reduction in Libya's oil production -- at least half its normal daily output of 1.6 million, but probably much more -- and the threat to other producers such as Algeria, Oman and Yemen, but particularly Saudi Arabia, has been manageable so far.

The Saudis, who have a surplus production capacity of some 5 million barrels a day, have picked up the slack. Even so prices have hit $115 a barrel.

But if the turbulence spreads, the Saudis may be hard pressed to sustain significant extra production to cover the losses if the troubles go on.

As it is, Klare and others say the Saudis have expressed reluctance to raise output much more than the normal 10 million bpd level for fear this could damage their huge oil fields.

Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has threatened to blow up Libya's oil infrastructure, much as Saddam Hussein set Kuwait's oilfields ablaze in 1991 as the Iraqi were driven out of the conquered emirate.

So it's possible that Libya's production may remain shut down for some time even after the fighting there comes to an end.

Anxiety is growing in Riyadh that the deepening crisis in neighboring Bahrain, an island kingdom linked to Saudi Arabia by a causeway, could spill onto the mainland.

The eruption in Sunni-ruled Bahrain stems primarily from its Shiite majority, 70 percent of the population and long downtrodden as second-class citizens.

Saudi Arabia fears this will infect the Shiites who dominate in its Eastern province, the center of its oil industry and vulnerable to sabotage.

But, Klare observes, "Even if rebellion does not reach Saudi Arabia, the old Middle Eastern oil order cannot be reconstructed, the result is sure to be a long-term decline in the future availability of exportable petroleum."

Regarding the Saudis' additional production, Klare cautions: "Don't expect this pattern to hold forever.

"Assuming the royal family survives the current round of upheavals, it will undoubtedly have to divert more of its daily oil output to satisfy rising domestic consumption."

That could reach 8.3 million bpd by 2028, according to the chief executive officer of the state-owned Aramco Co., Khalid al-Falih, far above the current level of 2.3 million bpd.

That would mean slashing the amount available for export from around 8 million bpd to 2 million bpd.

And there's another wrinkle, a big one. According to U.S. diplomatic cables released by WiliLeaks in January, Washington fears that Saudi Arabia may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating.

And that was before the current unprecedented political turmoil erupted.

Britain's Guardian newspaper reported Feb. 8 that cables from the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh urged Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi oil executive that the kingdom's oil reserves had been overstated by as much as 40 percent to spur foreign investment.

According to the cables, Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former director of exploration at Aramco, told U.S. diplomats in November 2007 the capacity of 12.5 million bpd Aramco was required to reach to keep a lid on oil prices could not be achieved.

In one cable, the embassy told Washington: "While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist.

"His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoroughly considered."

Seven months later the embassy went further. "Our mission now questions how much the Saudis can now substantially influence the crude markets over the long term," it said.

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