Mexico is now the third-largest supplier of oil to the United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest figures, a drop from No. 2.

The longtime backbone of Mexican energy -- the Cantarell oil field -- is nearly at the end of its lifespan, according to PEMEX experts, who point to successive years of decreased production.

Exports from Cantarell were also down significantly in 2008 to 1.4 million bpd on average, a drop of 16.8 percent from the previous year. The production fall was part of a wider trend among Mexico's aged fields.

With output at slightly less than 2.8 million barrels per day, Mexico's production in 2008 was the country's lowest in 14 years. By comparison, Mexico was producing just over 2.9 million bpd in 2007.

"The decline of Cantarell and other mature fields will imply a loss of production with respect to today of 1.1 million barrels per day by 2012 and 1.8 million bpd by 2017," said PEMEX head Jesus Reyes Heroles during an international energy conference in Houston.

Hoping to reverse the trend in 2009, PEMEX announced recently it planned to invest an average of $20 billion a year in the industry.

However, the state firm said it would -- in the medium term -- shift resources toward exploration activities in order to secure additional supplies of oil to compensate for the shortfalls from Cantarell.

While the plan would bring a new focus to PEMEX in the coming years, some contend its ability to succeed is entirely dependent on external factors such as the global price of oil and internal conditions such as maintaining, and perhaps increasing, production at existing wells while spending company money searching for new sources.

Both conditions for success could hamper PEMEX exploration projects over the next several years, wrote Allyson Benton and Enrique Bravo, analysts for the Eurasia Group consulting firm.

"The government's plan to maintain current investment spending levels and to increasingly shift these resources toward exploration may not be realistic," they surmised.

Not to be discouraged, last month Mexican energy officials said the decrease in oil production was already partly offset by increased production at the Ku-Maloob-Zaap field, which produced just over 700,000 bpd. PEMEX also predicted the field would supplant Cantarell as the nation's top producer in 2009.

Mexican Energy Minister Georgina Kessel told lawmakers last week the country's energy fortunes should be reversed and back on course by the middle of the next decade.

Whether Mexico can turn around its sagging fortunes remains to be seen, though its fortunes remain at the forefront of the minds of many Mexican officials.

For years the country's energy sector has been at the center of an ongoing, and sometimes violent, debate regarding whether foreign investment could bolster the sagging industry.

Though Mexican law prohibits PEMEX from entering into profit-sharing ventures with other companies, the state agency is allowed to enter into some partnerships as long as they are considered production agreements for exploration and drilling.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon would like nothing better than to open up the Mexican energy sector to outside investment but faces stiff opposition, despite assertions from experts that output most certainly would increase with the help of foreign energy giants.

Coupled with production shortfalls, reserves in Mexico -- a leading supplier of oil to the United States -- are running out, according to experts and Mexican energy officials. As it stands, PEMEX does not have the expertise necessary to drill in deep water for the estimated 30 billion barrels or more believed to be beneath the floor of the Gulf of Mexico.

That means Calderon somehow must convince opponents that opening up the sector to foreign companies for exploration would benefit both PEMEX and Mexicans in the long run, though intense opposition to foreign exploration will prevent that, said some experts.

Partnership issues regarding PEMEX are widely considered the "third rail" of Mexican energy law, as its profits account for a large portion of the country's budget and fund most of its social projects, prompting concerns that foreign oil companies will siphon off much-needed revenue.

Meanwhile, Mexico is still holding out hope that a new oil field discovered in 2006 will help PEMEX bolster its production levels in the coming years.

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