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Analysis: Mexico offers new oil fields

Oil prices leap on US, Chinese demand hopes
Oil prices rose sharply Wednesday on signs that demand could strengthen in the United States and China, the world's leading energy consumers. New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for April, finished at 45.38 dollars a barrel, a gain of 3.73 dollars from Tuesday's close. In London, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in April rallied 2.42 dollars to settle at 46.12 dollars a barrel. The New York contract, which opened higher, built upward momentum after the US government's weekly report on crude reserves in the world's largest oil consumer. The US Department of Energy said US stockpiles of crude oil dropped 700,000 barrels during the week ending February 27, instead of the rise of one million barrels forecasted by most analysts. The increase mainly was led by a pickup in refining activity. But US crude inventories remained high, 16 percent above their level a year ago. The DoE data revealed gasoline demand once again climbed over the past four weeks compared with a year ago, further underpinning prices. "The latest US weekly data show the strongest February week for gasoline demand ever and a further significant improvement in gasoline fundamentals relative to the weakness in the middle of the barrel," Barclays Capital analysts said. Less encouraging for prices was a rise in stockpiles of gasoline, diesel and heating fuel. "A mixed report -- not really supportive for crude as inventories remained at pretty high levels, clearly bearish for heating oil and diesel, but bullish again for gasoline on demand revival," Michael Wittner at Societe Generale summed up. Crude prices also found support on hopes of greater demand from China, stoked in part by reports that China will soon announce new additional stimulus actions to boost its sluggish economy. "Crude prices were higher on increased optimism the Chinese economy would recover swiftly from the current downturn following some positive economic news," Sucden analyst Nimit Khamar said. The Chinese government said manufacturing activity contracted for a fifth straight month in February but the decline slowed, with the data falling just short of the boom-bust line. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector rose to 49 in February from 45.3 in January, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said. "The Chinese PMI (showed) a marked improvement from the record low of 38.8 in November 2008," Khamar noted. "However, a reading of below 50 still indicates contraction."
by Carmen Gentile
Miami (UPI) Mar 4, 2009
Mexico has allocated more than 170 new sites for petroleum development amid falling production in its traditionally bountiful Cantarell oil field, where officials have revised production estimates for the year to reflect the forecast for further decreasing output.

Typically the second-largest supplier of oil to the United States, Mexico has seen production drop, prompting a relook at oil-sector investment.

The announcement of new development sites by the Mexican state-run energy company Pemex was heralded by Veracruz Gov. Fidel Herrera Beltran, who said the new sites' opening comes at an opportune time as the Mexican government late last year passed a reform bill allowing some foreign investment in the country's oil and gas sectors.

"It is a great time to invest in Mexico in areas that were closed or not open before," Beltran said during a recent international petroleum conference in Houston, according to Voice of America.

However, some major restrictions on the sector remain. Mexican law prohibits Pemex from entering into profit-sharing ventures with other companies -- a condition that could dissuade some foreign oil companies from investing the billions of dollars it would take to develop the new sites.

For Beltran's Veracruz, a state along the Gulf of Mexico with vast potential for additional offshore oil drilling, an easing of the restrictions on foreign profit-sharing would greatly improve Mexico's chances of capitalizing on its untapped oil wealth. Pemex currently lacks the expertise and capital to reach most major oil deposits offshore.

Experts estimate there are 30 billion barrels or more beneath the floor of the Gulf of Mexico, a bounty that could single-handedly save the Mexican oil industry amid falling output at its once leading oil field, Cantarell.

On Tuesday Pemex announced that the Cantarell oil field would produce 700,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate of 756,000 bpd.

And with the once robust production from Cantarell no longer a given, Mexico could be headed toward ending its run as a net exporter of oil and be forced to import petroleum to meet its energy needs at home.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon meanwhile would like to open up the energy sector to foreign investment, but he faces stiff opposition from some lawmakers who expressed concerns that the country's oil profits would wind up in the hands of outsiders.

Partnership issues regarding Pemex are widely considered the third rail of Mexican energy law as its profits account for a large portion of the country's budget and fund most of its social projects.

Coupled with production shortfalls, reserves in Mexico are running out faster than previously thought, according to oil experts and Mexican energy officials. As it stands, Pemex does not have the expertise necessary to drill in deep water for the estimated 30 billion barrels or more believed to be beneath the floor of the Gulf of Mexico.

That means Calderon somehow must convince opponents that opening up the sector to foreign companies for exploration would benefit both Pemex and Mexicans in the long run, though intense opposition to foreign exploration will prevent that, some experts said.

"If the company continues to face declining oil revenues caused by lower-than-expected production and/or oil prices, legislators will be increasingly reluctant to allocate large shares of limited fiscal resources to the company," said Allyson Benton, a Latin America analyst with the Eurasia Group.

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Analysis: Russian gas reservoirs for EU?
Berlin (UPI) Mar 3, 2009
Russian gas monopoly Gazprom is considering constructing Europe's largest gas storage facility in Germany, claiming the project would increase Europe's energy security.







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