Energy resources do not necessarily translate into foreign currency reserves, however, most notably in the case of Kazakhstan's Central Asian neighbors Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which, despite being rich in hydropower potential, are facing a brutal winter of electricity cuts.

Communism left the 15 new nations' economies warped, geared toward supplying the Soviet centrally planned economy directed from Moscow instead of supplying regional needs. Since 1991 Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have struggled to reform their economies to integrate into global markets. For Central Asia, Moscow's directives meant agricultural production and, most importantly, cotton to feed the massive textile establishments ringing Moscow. Tajikistan had the additional misfortune of descending into a vicious civil war in 1992; by the time it ended five years later, 50,000 were dead and the economy was left prostrate.

As the successful cultivation of cotton requires long periods free of frost, sunshine and moderate rainfall, usually 1 to 2 feet per annum, the Soviet solution to Central Asia's lack of precipitation was to dig a vast network of irrigation canals, drawing most of their water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers.

Consequently, the largest single regional unresolved post-Soviet issue concerning Central Asian water is the equitable division of the waters of the 1,500-mile Amu Darya and the 1,380-mile Syr Darya, whose combined flow before massive Soviet agricultural projects were implemented equaled that of the Nile. The two rivers together contain more than 90 percent of Central Asia's available water, and their headwaters are controlled by Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the two poorest and most mountainous "Stans." While alpine Tajikistan cultivated small amounts of cotton, it was the downstream states of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan that were responsible for the bulk of Soviet cotton production.

Soviet water management was highly centralized, with Moscow ordering Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to accumulate water in their reservoirs in winter to release downstream at the beginning of the cotton-farming season to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, who in turn during the winter would supply their upstream neighbors with the fuel and natural gas needed for power generation.

During the 20th century, Soviet engineers diverted almost all of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya flow, about 110 cubic kilometers annually, to irrigate Central Asia's cotton fields, but as water withdrawal from the rivers eventually reached 85 percent of their annual flow, little subsequently reached the Aral Sea, once the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 28,000 square miles. Beginning in the 1960s, the Aral began to shrink, and is now approximately 8,920 square miles.

By the early 1980s the Soviet Union had become a major exporter of cotton, accounting for more than 20 percent of global production. After independence, however, Moscow's subsidies dried up and the new nations' interests swiftly began to clash. The legacy of Soviet inefficiency combined with a lack of investment steadily worsened the problems, and today Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan occupy five of the top seven places in the world league table of per capita water users.

For better or worse, Uzbekistan remains wedded to its cotton crop. Uzbekistan is now the second-largest exporter of cotton in the world and receives more than $1 billion annually from its export of around 800,000 tons. Unfortunately for Uzbekistan, the possibilities for diversifying its agrarian base are limited, as only 10 percent of its land is suitable for cultivation, with cotton accounting for up to 40 percent of its agricultural production. The income from cotton remains vital to the country's economy, representing around 60 percent of hard currency export earnings.

Which bring us back to the coming winter. While Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely on hydropower to generate electricity, both states for the last several years have released more water from their reservoirs during the winter to meet peak demand, even though downstream Uzbekistan requires a uniform supply of water to maintain its crops. In Uzbekistan, the irregular water releases have caused food prices to rise and some cotton farmers to go bankrupt, leading to rising regional tensions. For people in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, having no hydrocarbon reserves, last winter was brutal, when despite the fact that Tajikistan increased water flows through its hydroelectric dams, people froze to death during the coldest winter in 50 years.

The crisis will escalate this winter in Kyrgyzstan as well, as the Toktogul reservoir, the largest in Central Asia, has a water level now of only 9.6 billion cubic meters, 74 percent of what's needed to generate electricity this winter. As discussions held Sept. 9-10 in the Kazakh city of Almaty between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan over the equitable division of the Syr Darya's water were unsuccessful, Bishkek now faces the possibility of importing Uzbek natural gas and Kazakh electricity this winter at near market rates. Kyrgyzstan is unlikely to get a sympathetic hearing in either country, as recent Kyrgyz legislation increasingly characterizes its water resources as a marketable commodity to sell downstream, a position strongly opposed by both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

For too long the West has been interested in Central Asia primarily for its energy and military uses; it is now time to provide assistance to allow the economies there to diversify. Failure to act could see the chaos still roiling Afghanistan spread northward into a region committed to change but lacking the internal resources to accomplish it. Tajik authorities are predicting 15-hour daily blackouts this winter to conserve energy, and the Kyrgyz government is contemplating 10-hour blackouts. If the West does not want to increase its International Security Assistance Force presence in Afghanistan to deal with Tajik and Kyrgyz refugees, then it might consider advancing fuel subsidies to assist the two nations as money well spent.

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